The problem is, there is no particularly good reason to believe that General &lslquo;Asgari was in an Israeli prison, or even in Israel; Israeli refusal to comment on intelligence matters and allegations, combined with censorship that is at times ridiculous in refusing even to report things published abroad, may be adding mystery where there is little or none. I have no idea where General ‘Asgari is, or whether he is alive or dead, but until the recent wave of reports most speculation had him in a safe house somewhere in the West.
It's an odd, shadowy, spooky, Spy vs. Spy sort of saga anyway. Let's take it from the top. General ‘Asgari, who was an IRGC General and a Deputy Defense Minister under President Khatami, Supplanted when Ahmadinejad was elected, he disappeared in Istanbul in 2007. Iran has claimed he was kidnapped. Western speculation has generally been that he defected and is in the hands and under the protection of a Western intelligence service. Some have claimed he had been a double agent for some years, had run Iranian intelligence in Lebanon, and had extensive knowledge of Hizbullah. That would be the presumed motive for an Israeli involvement, if any. Iran protested, and there is confusion over whether he disappeared in December 2006 or January 2007, and Western and Iranian reports attribute different stories to his wife, or someone identified as his wife. Typical cloak and dagger stuff.
Now the current issue. Last June there was an Israeli report about a mysterious "Prisoner X" who was being held at Ayalon Prison under extreme secrecy. The story disappeared from the Israeli website that published it, Ynet (the Yediot Aharanot online site), presumably due to the censor's intervention, but a screen capture by blogger and peace activist Richard Silverstein preserved the report. Silverstein, a controversial figure whose blog, Tikun Olam, often claims to break stories about Israeli intelligence. In December, Silverstein claimed that a source had identified Prisoner X as ‘Asgari, though he admitted another source had denied this, claiming to know who Prisoner X really was.
If you're with me so far, here's where it gets stranger. On December 27, a Ynet report (again taken down; Silverstein has a screenshot), and Silverstein reported that an alleged suicide of a security prisoner was ‘Asgari, but also claimed that he had been murdered.
Iranian Defense Minister Vahidi denounced the alleged murder of ‘Asgari, and Iran is reportedly taking matters to the UN.
Ha'aretz correspondent Yossi Melman, who covers the Mossad beat as far as any Israeli journalist is allowed to, published a lengthy piece on "The Mossad Myth" in which he expressed doubt that ‘Asgari had ever been in Israel and suggested a cult of excessive secrecy was lending credibility to the claims. Of course, if you're a conspiracy theorist, you'll assume Melman is reporting the line Mossad is feeding him.
The fuss seems to have died down a little in the face of other events, and as I've said already, I don't know what happened to ‘Asgari. But I'm struck by the fact that a single blogger, Silverstein, who does seem to have sources inside Israel but who has sometimes been off the mark before, is the sole real reason to believe that Prisoner X is/was ‘Asgari. If Prisoner X wasn't ‘Asgari, there's no reason to think ‘Asgari's dead. And while I respect Silverstein's views and probably share many of them, there seem to be some leaps of faith going on here in the identification.
Homicide detectives (on TV and the movies anyway) always look for motive and opportunity. If indeed Israel snatched an IRGC general and has been holding him in solitary, what would the motive be for killing him now? Anybody? Assuming the suicide story is the real one, why were they holding him so long, if he'd cooperated? Melman may know more than he can post, but he's a lot closer (geographically and otherwise) than Silverstein.
I'll note that the Iranians in the past, while blaming the US in general for being behind the disappearance of ‘Asgari in our role as the patrons of Global Arrogance, have tended to blame not only Israel but also British and German intelligence for the actual operation. There are enough people saying ‘Asgari was never in Israel and isn't dead that I tend to believe this is probably the case. Then again, he's unlikely to turn up and say, "Here I am, I'm fine," because that would probably make him a target.
Or, it could all be true. But the shadowy world in which ‘Asgari moved is one in which a whole lot is going to remain unknown for years, if not forever. You could ask Ashraf Marwan.
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