We're confused: Marriage, unions and Amendment 1

Opponents of an amendment to ban same sex marriage in North Carolina have long known their success depends on educating the public - not only about homosexuals in our communities, but about what the amendment will do.


A new Public Policy Polling survey released moments ago drives that challenge home. The survey of voters shows that North Carolinians are firmly in favor of an amendment that would constitutionally ban same sex marriage. But once those voters understand that the amendment also bans civil unions - as most experts believe it does - its prospects suddenly become a toss-up.


The numbers, from PPP's Tom Jensen: 58% of voters in the state say that they'll vote yes on Amendment 1, while 38% are opposed to it. Republicans pretty universally support it, 76/20. Democrats are closely divided with 48% in support and 47% opposed. The group most opposed is actually independents, who say they'll vote against it 55/42.


Says Jensen: "That's an important commentary on unaffiliated voters beyond this issue - they lean Republican in North Carolina right now because they're unhappy with the economy, but they're not hardcore social conservatives. The GOP needs to be careful about going too far out on a limb on social issues if it wants to keep its support with independents."

But here's where some contradictions begin: The poll also finds that 51% of voters in the state support some form of legal recognition for gay couples - 26% for marriage and 25% for civil unions - with 45% completely opposed to any.


How can you be for Amendment One but also in favor of legal recognition for gay couples? By not understanding what most believe the amendment does - ban both same sex marriage and legal recognition of civil unions. Only 31 percent got that right, while 28 percent thought the amendment banned only same sex marriage. Seven percent thought the amendment actually legalized gay marriage. Thirty-four percent said they didn't know.


Which leads us to the big stat: When voters are informed that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions, only 41% of voters say they'll support it knowing that, while 42% are opposed.


One more interesting, if not new, note: White Democrats are opposed to the proposed ban, but African Americans support it 61/30. Yet another challenge for Amendment One opponents to overcome. With less than six weeks to go before the May 8 vote, that's a lot of needles to move.


Peter St. Onge

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