Regimes Seeking Scapegoats

There's a good piece by Najla Abdurrahman at Foreign Policy called "Getting Libya's Rebels Wrong," a riposte to the expressions of concern by some in high places (NATO's Admiral James Stavridis, most prominently), worried about possible links between the Libyan rebels and Al-Qa‘ida. The article helps set the record straight (to be honest, much of the rebel council is made up of ex-Qadhafi regime figures). In part, many legitimately fear the sort of blowback experienced in Afghanistan, when weapons provided to the mujahidin against te Soviets ended up in hostile hands. But it's also a reminder that regimes finding themselves n the ropes seek to blame scapegoats, especially if it can evoke a bete noire of the major powers. For Western consumption, the Libyan regime has emphasized blaming al-Qa‘ida, though its domestic propaganda has been more inventive, portraying an Al-Qa‘ida/US/Israeli plot, with Switzerland and Canada occasionally being included when Qadhafi is rambling. (Which often equates to when Qadhafi is speaking.) Now, Algeria also seems to be crying "Al-Qa‘ida!) (And to be fair, strange combinations have been charged elsewhere: during the Revolution some Mubarak supporters in Egypt claimed an Israeli-Iranian plot.)

One reason regimes try this kind of scapegoating is that it frequently works. During the Cold War, the US gladly backed a rogue's gallery of unsavory dictators provided they proclaimed their anti-Communism loudly. This was especially true in Latin America and Asia.

There are reports that the US is beginning to favor easing out Yemeni President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih, but until quite recently it has been very cautious because Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula really is present in strength there.

An area where scapegoating has worked pretty well so far is Bahrain, where the regime's crackdown (still continuing with many arrests, banned newspapers, etc.) has been defended as a response to an Iranian threat; while the US was cautiously critical of the Saudi intervention, it has largely acquiesced in it. Yet in part this stems from accepting the implicit government steretotype that Bahraini Shi‘ite=Iranian fifth column.

And of course, the US has said little about dissent in Jordan, Oman, or the nearly invisible protests in Saudi Arabia, in part because of fear of the alternatives. Urging change in Syria or Iran, of course, produces no such reticence.

Since Arab spring shows few signs of ending soon, I hope outside players will evaluate what really is happening in each country and not be distracted by regimes crying wolf. There are plenty of sinister movements who really will try to capitalize on turmoil, but autocrats who have painted tthemselves into a corner should not have a license to crush dissent just because they evoke the mantras of "Al-Qa‘ida!" or "Iran!"

You have read this article Al-Qa‘ida / Bahrain / Iran / Libya with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2011/04/regimes-seeking-scapegoats.html. Thanks!

Update on Iran

I'm an unapologetic Arabist, but I do follow Iran and try to stay current. Though clearly the regime is not in immediate jeopardy, the arrests of Moussavi and Karroubi and their wives continues to prov0ke criticism: these aren't seditious enemies of the state, but among the makers of the 1979 Revolution. Now Grand Ayatollah Musavi-Ardebili has criticized the regime.

The British-based Enduring America's Worldview blog is doing a good job of covering Iran and all the other revolutions. Until I have more time I definitely recommend reading them.

You have read this article Iran / revolutions with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2011/03/update-on-iran.html. Thanks!

More Protests

If leaders elsewhere in the Middle East were banking on the idea that what happens in Egypt, stays in Egypt, no such luck. Following weekend protests in Algeria and Yemen, today was the big 25 Bahman demonstration in Iran (with major confrontations), and also protests in Bahrain. I'll have more comment on this later.

You have read this article Bahrain / Iran with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2011/02/more-protests.html. Thanks!

The Strange Case of General ‘Asgari

Over the New Year's weekend a very strange story suddenly surfaced (sinking fairly quickly thereafter) when Iran protested to the United Nations the alleged murder, or alleged suicide, of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps General ‘Ali Reza ‘Asgari in an Israeli prison.

The problem is, there is no particularly good reason to believe that General &lslquo;Asgari was in an Israeli prison, or even in Israel; Israeli refusal to comment on intelligence matters and allegations, combined with censorship that is at times ridiculous in refusing even to report things published abroad, may be adding mystery where there is little or none. I have no idea where General ‘Asgari is, or whether he is alive or dead, but until the recent wave of reports most speculation had him in a safe house somewhere in the West.

It's an odd, shadowy, spooky, Spy vs. Spy sort of saga anyway. Let's take it from the top. General ‘Asgari, who was an IRGC General and a Deputy Defense Minister under President Khatami, Supplanted when Ahmadinejad was elected, he disappeared in Istanbul in 2007. Iran has claimed he was kidnapped. Western speculation has generally been that he defected and is in the hands and under the protection of a Western intelligence service. Some have claimed he had been a double agent for some years, had run Iranian intelligence in Lebanon, and had extensive knowledge of Hizbullah. That would be the presumed motive for an Israeli involvement, if any. Iran protested, and there is confusion over whether he disappeared in December 2006 or January 2007, and Western and Iranian reports attribute different stories to his wife, or someone identified as his wife. Typical cloak and dagger stuff.

Now the current issue. Last June there was an Israeli report about a mysterious "Prisoner X" who was being held at Ayalon Prison under extreme secrecy. The story disappeared from the Israeli website that published it, Ynet (the Yediot Aharanot online site), presumably due to the censor's intervention, but a screen capture by blogger and peace activist Richard Silverstein preserved the report. Silverstein, a controversial figure whose blog, Tikun Olam, often claims to break stories about Israeli intelligence. In December, Silverstein claimed that a source had identified Prisoner X as ‘Asgari, though he admitted another source had denied this, claiming to know who Prisoner X really was.

If you're with me so far, here's where it gets stranger. On December 27, a Ynet report (again taken down; Silverstein has a screenshot), and Silverstein reported that an alleged suicide of a security prisoner was ‘Asgari, but also claimed that he had been murdered.

Iranian Defense Minister Vahidi denounced the alleged murder of ‘Asgari, and Iran is reportedly taking matters to the UN.

Ha'aretz correspondent Yossi Melman, who covers the Mossad beat as far as any Israeli journalist is allowed to, published a lengthy piece on "The Mossad Myth" in which he expressed doubt that ‘Asgari had ever been in Israel and suggested a cult of excessive secrecy was lending credibility to the claims. Of course, if you're a conspiracy theorist, you'll assume Melman is reporting the line Mossad is feeding him.

The fuss seems to have died down a little in the face of other events, and as I've said already, I don't know what happened to ‘Asgari. But I'm struck by the fact that a single blogger, Silverstein, who does seem to have sources inside Israel but who has sometimes been off the mark before, is the sole real reason to believe that Prisoner X is/was ‘Asgari. If Prisoner X wasn't ‘Asgari, there's no reason to think ‘Asgari's dead. And while I respect Silverstein's views and probably share many of them, there seem to be some leaps of faith going on here in the identification.

Homicide detectives (on TV and the movies anyway) always look for motive and opportunity. If indeed Israel snatched an IRGC general and has been holding him in solitary, what would the motive be for killing him now? Anybody? Assuming the suicide story is the real one, why were they holding him so long, if he'd cooperated? Melman may know more than he can post, but he's a lot closer (geographically and otherwise) than Silverstein.

I'll note that the Iranians in the past, while blaming the US in general for being behind the disappearance of ‘Asgari in our role as the patrons of Global Arrogance, have tended to blame not only Israel but also British and German intelligence for the actual operation. There are enough people saying ‘Asgari was never in Israel and isn't dead that I tend to believe this is probably the case. Then again, he's unlikely to turn up and say, "Here I am, I'm fine," because that would probably make him a target.

Or, it could all be true. But the shadowy world in which ‘Asgari moved is one in which a whole lot is going to remain unknown for years, if not forever. You could ask Ashraf Marwan.

You have read this article intelligence / Iran / Israel / Mossad with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2011/01/strange-case-of-general-asgari.html. Thanks!

Jundallah Claims Credit for Chabahar Bombing on Eve of ‘Ashura

A mosque bombing in the Iranian city of Chabahar has killed at least 39 people, and has been claimed by the Sunni movement Jundallah (Army of God), which has staged attacks against Shi‘ites in southeastern Iran; this attack came on the eve of the Shi‘ite mourning day of ‘Ashura. The target of the attack was the Imam Hussein mosque, named for the martyr of Karbala', so it is clearly aimed at outraging Shi‘ites.

Jundallah operates in southeastern Iran, reportedly from bases inside Pakistan. Iran claims Jundallah is backed by the United States, though this is denied by the US, which now classifies Jundallah as a terrorist group.

You have read this article Iran / Jundallah / Pakistan with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/12/jundallah-claims-credit-for-chabahar.html. Thanks!

Thoughts on the Mottaki Firing

The firing yesterday of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki remains a somewhat mysterious, if obviously important, event, as does his replacement by ‘Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the nuclear program. (Pics at left: Mottaki on top, then Salehi.) It appears to be a power play by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, and may be an indication of deep divisions in the senior leadership.

What follows blends some of my own thoughts with some online discussions which, being off the record, I cannot cite; I will only say I hope it's informed by the views of some who know Iran much better than I.

Observation Number One: It may be as sign that Supreme Leader Ayatollah ‘Ali Khamene'i, who has the ultimate say over key positions like the Foreign Ministry, may indeed be seriously ill and his powers fading. If seems likely it's an attempt by the hardliners to emphasize the centrality of the nuclear issue.

Observation Number Two: Mottaki was fired while on an official visit to Senegal. Firing your Foreign Minister while he's on an official visit seems to suggest either a quick decision or a deliberate attempt to isolate him while outside the country. It certainly suggests more than a routine reshuffle: more an open repudiation.

Observation Number Three: Some accounts suggest that ‘Ali Akbar Salehi, the interim Foreign Minister and head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency, may in his latter capacity be banned by the UN sanctions from freely traveling internationally. A Foreign Minister who may be barred from travel?

Observation Number Four: Salehi, who despite the concerns cited above, has a Bachelor's from AUB and a doctorate from MIT (trained back in the 70s when the US was assisting Iran in training nuclear engineers), is said to have the best English of anyone in senior leadership. So he might otherwise be a strong candidate.

Observation Number Five: There have been claims that Mottaki frequently quarreled with Ahmadinejad, who may have blamed him for sanctions and other international setbacks Iran has suffered, even if most were responses to Ahmadinejad's policies, not Mottaki's.

More when (and if) we know more.

You have read this article Ahmadinejad / Iran / nuclear weapons with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/12/thoughts-on-mottaki-firing.html. Thanks!

Mottaki Fired as Foreign Minister

Iran has suddenly sacked Manouchehr Mottaki as Foreign Minister, and replaced him with ‘Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the nuclear program.

This is obviously a major development, but I'm going to await further details before speculating on what it means.

You have read this article Iran with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/12/mottaki-fired-as-foreign-minister.html. Thanks!

Stuxnet More Subtle than First Thought?

Remember the flap over Stuxnet? The alleged computer worm that may have deliberately targeted the Iranian nuclear program? (If not, click the link.) While the usual suspects (the US and Israel) plead that they know nothing (nothing!) this report in Wired suggests Stuxnet was a very subtle program aimed at introducing gradual, undetectable changes into a system.

The technical details are way beyond me, so I merely refer you to the article, since we've dealt with this story before. It does sound increasingly like Iran may have been the target.

You have read this article information technology / intelligence / Iran / nuclear weapons / Stuxnet with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/11/stuxnet-more-subtle-than-first-thought.html. Thanks!

David Broder's Iran Argument and its Critics

David Broder, a normally sane veteran political analyst for the Washington Post, seems to have stirred up a hornet's nest (at least Inside the Beltway) with his Sunday column, which included the following argument:

What else might affect the economy? The answer is obvious, but its implications are frightening. War and peace influence the economy.

Look back at FDR and the Great Depression. What finally resolved that economic crisis? World War II.

Here is where Obama is likely to prevail. With strong Republican support in Congress for challenging Iran's ambition to become a nuclear power, he can spend much of 2011 and 2012 orchestrating a showdown with the mullahs. This will help him politically because the opposition party will be urging him on. And as tensions rise and we accelerate preparations for war, the economy will improve.

I am not suggesting, of course, that the president incite a war to get reelected. But the nation will rally around Obama because Iran is the greatest threat to the world in the young century. If he can confront this threat and contain Iran's nuclear ambitions, he will have made the world safer and may be regarded as one of the most successful presidents in history.

He says he "is not suggesting, of course, that the president incite a war to get reelected." Really? That's certainly what it sounded like. Broder is a savvy political analyst, but here I think he falls into the Washington habit of assessing everything, even a military mission, in terms of electoral result, ignoring human and financial costs. A war against Iran would not be a few airstrikes. Elimination of Iran's hardened nuclear facilities would require a sustained campaign against modern air defenses, with massive collateral damage and, arguably, a ground component. A tanker or two sunk in the Gulf by mines or torpedoes would send insurance rates soaring and with them, the price of oil. Iranian ability to cause trouble in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan — already a problem — would be unleashed.

Naturally, I'm not the only one to find this suggestion bizarre. Marc Lynch (who has returned to regular blogging after a hiatus) addresses the issue here, and notes that the last person to suggest this was Elliott Abrams, not usually on the same page as Broder. Blake Hounshell asks at Foreign Policy, "Has David Broder Lost His Mind?" Helena Cobban sees it as a symptom of "War Fever in Washington." Andrew Sullivan says simply, "There is so much clinically nuts about this, one doesn't know where to start."

It's disappointing to see a seasoned analyst like Broder making this argument. But the howls of derision (and not just from the left) are somewhat reassuring.

You have read this article Iran / nuclear weapons / US military with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/11/david-broder-iran-argument-and-its.html. Thanks!

Sheikh Saqr and the Tunbs

When Queen Mary of England learned of the fall of the long-English town of Calais to the French, she reportedly said that when she died and her body was opened, "you will find 'Calais' written upon my heart."

For Sheikh Saqr of Ras al-Khaimah, who died yesterday at age 92 (earlier posts here and here), the word would be "Tunbs."

If you're not familiar with the Tunbs, you probably haven't known many Emiratis, since the subject does tend to come up. The Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands (Tunb al-Kubra and Tunb al-Sughra in Arabic; Tonb-e Bozorg and Tonb-e Kuchek in Persian)(pronounced in Arabic as if spelled Tumb) are two tiny islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Since November 1971 they have been occupied by Iran, but claimed by the UAE, along with the island of Abu Musa. Before 1971 the Tunbs were administered by the Emirate of Ras al-Khaimah, ruled from 1948 until yesterday by Sheikh Saqr, while Abu Musa was administered by Sharja. (My sense is the two Wikipedia links lean to the Iranian view of the dispute, but they introduce the subject.)

As the map shows, the Tunbs are located between the main shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, the key outlet for Gulf oil. Abu Musa sits just to the south. They are a strategic planner's delight: potential power bases on a key global chokepoint.

In 1971, as the British retreated from "East of Suez," what had been the "Trucial States" prepared to join together in the UAE, and Iran — Imperial Iran under the Shah, remember — claimed the islands as historically Iranian. The withdrawing British were not prepared for a confrontation and may have felt Iran would be the better steward of the Strait. (After all, Iran would always be a staunch ally of the West.)

Under the gun, Sharja reached a deal allowing Iran sand Sharja to share Abu Musa. Sheikh Saqr of Ras al-Khaimah steadfastly refused to compromise on the Tunbs. Iran occupied Abu Musa peaceably, the Tunbs by military force.

Since that time, Iran has been in possession of all three islands (eventually taking full control of Abu Musa in effect) and keeps them well garrisoned (even Lesser Tunb, which historically was uninhabited). The UAE has never relinquished its claim, and has produced a lot of documentation arguing its case, but Iran has refused to take the case to the World Court. Sheikh Saqr never forgot the Tunbs. The UAE has produced reams of documents, but Iran has the islands.

I won't judge the historical claims. Sovereignty has meant different things at different times, and the two sides of the Gulf have traded and fished and pearled since Classical times. There are Arab speakers on the Iranian side and Persian speakers on the Arabian side, and no argument is likely to persuade an Iranian or an Emirati of the merit of the other case. Like the "Persian Gulf" controversy, it is a matter of firm national conviction.

But Sheikh Saqr never lost faith, and never compromised.

You have read this article Iran / Ras al-Khaimah / Territorial disputes / The ___ Gulf / UAE with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/10/sheikh-saqr-and-tunbs.html. Thanks!

Maliki in Tehran

Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki has been in Tehran, following his recent visit to Syria. There's talk that Iran is pushing for Muqtada al-Sadr to back Maliki against ‘Iyad &lssqu;Allawi, but even so the math still makes a resolution of the Iraqi standoff difficult. Maliki is also planning to go to other regional countries soon.

You have read this article Iran / Iraq with the title Iran. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/10/maliki-in-tehran.html. Thanks!