Israel Shoots Something Down Over Dimona

Israel has announced that an IDF aircraft shot down "a suspicious object, probably a balloon" that flew over the Dimona nuclear reactor. In another version it's called an "apparent engine-powered balloon," brought down by an Israeli F-16,

I hesitate to guess at this point, but submit it for your unidentified no-longer-flying object files.

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Thoughts on the Mottaki Firing

The firing yesterday of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki remains a somewhat mysterious, if obviously important, event, as does his replacement by ‘Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the nuclear program. (Pics at left: Mottaki on top, then Salehi.) It appears to be a power play by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, and may be an indication of deep divisions in the senior leadership.

What follows blends some of my own thoughts with some online discussions which, being off the record, I cannot cite; I will only say I hope it's informed by the views of some who know Iran much better than I.

Observation Number One: It may be as sign that Supreme Leader Ayatollah ‘Ali Khamene'i, who has the ultimate say over key positions like the Foreign Ministry, may indeed be seriously ill and his powers fading. If seems likely it's an attempt by the hardliners to emphasize the centrality of the nuclear issue.

Observation Number Two: Mottaki was fired while on an official visit to Senegal. Firing your Foreign Minister while he's on an official visit seems to suggest either a quick decision or a deliberate attempt to isolate him while outside the country. It certainly suggests more than a routine reshuffle: more an open repudiation.

Observation Number Three: Some accounts suggest that ‘Ali Akbar Salehi, the interim Foreign Minister and head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency, may in his latter capacity be banned by the UN sanctions from freely traveling internationally. A Foreign Minister who may be barred from travel?

Observation Number Four: Salehi, who despite the concerns cited above, has a Bachelor's from AUB and a doctorate from MIT (trained back in the 70s when the US was assisting Iran in training nuclear engineers), is said to have the best English of anyone in senior leadership. So he might otherwise be a strong candidate.

Observation Number Five: There have been claims that Mottaki frequently quarreled with Ahmadinejad, who may have blamed him for sanctions and other international setbacks Iran has suffered, even if most were responses to Ahmadinejad's policies, not Mottaki's.

More when (and if) we know more.

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Stuxnet More Subtle than First Thought?

Remember the flap over Stuxnet? The alleged computer worm that may have deliberately targeted the Iranian nuclear program? (If not, click the link.) While the usual suspects (the US and Israel) plead that they know nothing (nothing!) this report in Wired suggests Stuxnet was a very subtle program aimed at introducing gradual, undetectable changes into a system.

The technical details are way beyond me, so I merely refer you to the article, since we've dealt with this story before. It does sound increasingly like Iran may have been the target.

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David Broder's Iran Argument and its Critics

David Broder, a normally sane veteran political analyst for the Washington Post, seems to have stirred up a hornet's nest (at least Inside the Beltway) with his Sunday column, which included the following argument:

What else might affect the economy? The answer is obvious, but its implications are frightening. War and peace influence the economy.

Look back at FDR and the Great Depression. What finally resolved that economic crisis? World War II.

Here is where Obama is likely to prevail. With strong Republican support in Congress for challenging Iran's ambition to become a nuclear power, he can spend much of 2011 and 2012 orchestrating a showdown with the mullahs. This will help him politically because the opposition party will be urging him on. And as tensions rise and we accelerate preparations for war, the economy will improve.

I am not suggesting, of course, that the president incite a war to get reelected. But the nation will rally around Obama because Iran is the greatest threat to the world in the young century. If he can confront this threat and contain Iran's nuclear ambitions, he will have made the world safer and may be regarded as one of the most successful presidents in history.

He says he "is not suggesting, of course, that the president incite a war to get reelected." Really? That's certainly what it sounded like. Broder is a savvy political analyst, but here I think he falls into the Washington habit of assessing everything, even a military mission, in terms of electoral result, ignoring human and financial costs. A war against Iran would not be a few airstrikes. Elimination of Iran's hardened nuclear facilities would require a sustained campaign against modern air defenses, with massive collateral damage and, arguably, a ground component. A tanker or two sunk in the Gulf by mines or torpedoes would send insurance rates soaring and with them, the price of oil. Iranian ability to cause trouble in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan — already a problem — would be unleashed.

Naturally, I'm not the only one to find this suggestion bizarre. Marc Lynch (who has returned to regular blogging after a hiatus) addresses the issue here, and notes that the last person to suggest this was Elliott Abrams, not usually on the same page as Broder. Blake Hounshell asks at Foreign Policy, "Has David Broder Lost His Mind?" Helena Cobban sees it as a symptom of "War Fever in Washington." Andrew Sullivan says simply, "There is so much clinically nuts about this, one doesn't know where to start."

It's disappointing to see a seasoned analyst like Broder making this argument. But the howls of derision (and not just from the left) are somewhat reassuring.

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