Bombing in Jerusalem

A bomb has gone off near the Central Bus Station in Jerusalem, killing one person and injuring many. There has been an escalation of violence since Saturday, when 50 mortar rounds were fired from Gaza into Israel, followed by Israeli strikes on Gaza.

The quid pro quo cycle is sadly familiar and perhaps inescapable;I do wonder if this is some way linked with Mahmoud ‘Abbas announce willingness to go to Gaza to meet with Isma‘il Haniyya about settling the Fatah-Hamas split. At first glance it may seem odd to strike Israel to abort a Palestinian reconciliation, but in the calculus of this conflict, it could produce such a result.

You have read this article Hamas / Israel / Palestinian Authority / terrorism with the title terrorism. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2011/03/bombing-in-jerusalem.html. Thanks!

Video Inside the Church

A YouTube video from inside the church during the New Year's Eve bombing in Alexandria. The blast outside is heard and the worshippers begin to panic; someone, perhaps the priest or deacon in the picture, is telling them it's nothing.



Anger is still running high.

You have read this article Copts / Egypt / Middle Eastern Christians / terrorism with the title terrorism. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2011/01/video-inside-church.html. Thanks!

New Paramilitary Force for Saudi Intelligence

According to this story in Arab News, Saudi intelligence chief Prince Muqrin has announced the formation of a new force, apparently intended for counterterrorism, under the intelligence service. From the pictujre it looks like a paramilitary force, which is probably why the article notes that it will fully cooperate with the Interior Ministry. Without more information, it's hard to know why this isn't a redundant force to begin with: doesn't Saudi General Intelligence already cooperate with Interior, which has the police power?

Offhand I'm guessing this is the usual bureaucratic redundancy familiar to most security services in most countries: of course the Interior Ministry already has such forces, but Intelligence did not. Now Prince Muqrin has one, too.

You have read this article intelligence / Saudi Arabia / terrorism with the title terrorism. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/12/new-paramilitary-force-for-saudi.html. Thanks!

Shin Bet Chief on Internet Dangers

They say when you have a hammer, every problem begins to look like a nail. I suppose when you're an internal security service, everything begins to look like it's helping your enemies.

Israeli Shin Bet Chief Yuval Diskin told a conference on homeland security that Google Earth, the Internet, and smartphone apps have given terrorists access to intelligence they didn't have before. He said:

"The terrorist threat in the future has become more complex," Diskin said. "The world has turned into a 'global village' and everything is available to everyone. The world is smaller and broader and technology can cross continents."

Don't you just hate it when that happens?

The Internet has made it possible for a lot more openness: this blog once had some fun with Google Earth that might not sit well with Shin Bet, but that I would consider liberating, not threatening. On the whole, I think technology has opened things up, because it empowers everyone, not just the terrorists. Arabs can read the Israeli media. Arabs and Israelis quarrel all the time on forums, but at least they're interacting. Technology is opening up the world, and that's for the best. They can have my Google Earth when they pry it from my cold, dead hands.

Oh, yes: those dangerous IPhone apps Diskin mentioned: are they available for Android?

You have read this article information technology / Israel / Shin Bet / social networking / terrorism with the title terrorism. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/11/shin-bet-chief-on-internet-dangers.html. Thanks!

Yemen Army Fails to Find AQAP Even as World Suspects AQAP in Bomb Plot

In an unfortunate piece of timing, Yemen's Saba News Agency announced today that the Yemen Army has ended its operations in the al-Kur Mountains of Shabwa Province, after failing to locate any Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Penuinsula (AQAP) elements there. This comes at a time when the US and UK assume AQAP is behind today's interception of explosive devices on cargo flights.

AQAP, which emerged from the merger of the Yemeni and Saudi branches of Al-Qa‘ida, has become one of the most active movements in recent years, with operations ranging from the USS Cole to the attempt to assassinate Prince Muhammad bin Nayef of Saudi Arabia. Lately, they have of course shown a serious interest in striking inside the United States, with reported links to both the Fort Hood shooter and the "underwear bomber" of last Christmas. One reason for the focus on the US may be the presence in Yemen of Anwar al-‘Awlaqi, the New Mexico-born radical of Yemeni descent.

Western intelligence sources reportedly believe ‘Awlaqi is hiding in the mountains of Shabwa, despite the Yemeni Army's aforementioned inability to find any AQAP there. (One reason he will be hard to find: before the British left South Yemen, a major part of what is now Shabwa was called the Sultanate of ‘Awlaq. His tribal roots are there, and if the tribes are protecting him, the government won't find him. So far the Predators haven't found him either, though they've reportedly been given the right to take him out. Usama bin Ladin's ancestral roots, of course, lie in neighboring Hadramawt.)

AQAP is serious about striking the US: earlier this year they published a colorful, English-language jihadi magazine called Inspire, the first issue of which included the article "How to Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom," (a pressure cooker is involved). The second issue was released just a few weeks ago. It offers (in a section it calls "Open Source Jihad") advice to potential Jihadis living in the West on how to conceal their identity, avoid suspicion, and plan their own attacks. (Since it includes bombmaking instructions and other unpleasant — and illegal — stuff, I've linked to the Jihadica analysis, not the magazine itself, but copies are out there, and I've looked the first two issues over.)

I suspect we're going to hear a lot more about AQAP and ‘Awlaqi in coming days.

You have read this article Al-Qa‘ida / AQAP / terrorism / Yemen with the title terrorism. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/10/yemen-army-fails-to-find-aqap-even-as.html. Thanks!

Asymmetry 101

UPDATE: The President says the packages did contain explosive material. I don't think that changes the basic point below that a limited threat can nevertheless produce asymmetric levels of disruption.

Today's international security alerts still have a lot of unanswered questions attached, so bear in mind that I'm offering some first reactions here, not a considered evaluation. So far it seems that the hard evidence is a few suspicious packages originating in Yemen and reportedly sent to Chicago, perhaps to Chicago synagogues. One is described as a toner cartridge with attached circuit boards. No explosives have been confirmed [SEE ABOVE].

So far, international cargo has been scrutinized at Dubai, East Midlands Airport in the UK, and Newark and Philadelphia in the US, while an Emirates flight origainating in Yemen has been escorted in to New York, first by Canadian and then by US fighter jets.

Now, assuming no explosives turn up, what should we make of all this? Some are suggesting a "dry run," but there isn't much evidence that Al-Qa‘ida believes in dry runs. More likely might be an attempt to test defenses, to judge security by watching the reaction of the security forces in the UK and US.

But I think it's just as likely that the whole purpose was simply to force the security services to spend a lot of time and man-hours coping with these potential threats. If it is, as many seem to be assuming, Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and possibly, once again, the long arm of Anwar ‘Awlaqi, it's worth noting that he has talked in the past about emphasizing opreations that produce maximum disruption for limited effort, as opposed to spectacular 9/11-style attacks. This could be an example if, as seems possible, several countries and much of the cargo system has been snarled by a few packages: and packages that might attract attention (if reports that the packages were addressed to Chicago synagogues are true, that would seem to be planting a red flag and waving it).

This could be either a test of defenses or simply a ploy to occupy security forces and force expenditures of effort and money. If so, it may be a classic case of Asymmetric Warfare 101. More later if developments warrant.

You have read this article Al-Qa‘ida / terrorism / Yemen with the title terrorism. You can bookmark this page URL https://ogbcommunity.blogspot.com/2010/10/asymmetry-101.html. Thanks!