Lost Causes 101: A Gamal Mubarak Candidacy?

Supporters of Gamal Mubarak are organizing to promote him as a candidate for the Egyptian Presidency.

Outside his circle of young, nouveaux riches businessmen, there was never much evidence of popular support for Gamal. Of course, in those days "one man, one vote" meant one man (Gamal's father) had the only vote. Now that there's a broader field in play, I think Gamal has more to worry about from having his bank accounts investigated than running a campaign.

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Egyptian Male Naming Patterns: A Cultural Note

A cultural aside prompted by events in Egypt. When I first lived in Egypt back in the 1970s, in those remote eras before Husni Mubarak was even President yet, I eventually started to wonder why so many men in their 50s seemed to be named Saad, while relatively few of the males my age were. Eventually I asked a couple (a used bookseller and another acquaintance in that age group), and realized they were presumably all, as these two were, named after Saad Zaghloul Pasha. I also noted a lot of younger men and boys born in the 1950s and 1960s, named Gamal. Obviously after Nasser. I suspect this includes the late-40-something former banker who has apparently taken up residence in London this week and whose political prospects are now nil.

A question for more recent Egypt hands: in the last 30 years, when my visits have usually been under a week and have not allowed thorough research on this abstruse onomastic issue, has there been a wave of Husnis born, or, as I suspect, not outside the ruling circles?

I also like an excuse to say "onomastic." Not a word I get to use every day: relating to the study of proper names, to save you the trouble of Googling.

Oh, and for now, I intend to fly the flag in the Egypt posts.

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Gamal Makes Nothing Very Clear

Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party finally and belatedly held its Annual Conference, postponed until after the Parliamentary elections, last week. Pressed by reporters, Gamal Mubarak made nothing very clear at all about next year's Presidential elections: they'll be in September and the NDP will choose its nominee by July. We pretty much knew that.

So it looks like the question of which Mubarak will run is as unclear as ever.

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Wikileaks Does Egypt

Last week I made clear I have reservations about the whole Wikileaks enterprise, but also criticized the notion that once documents have been published, one should somehow ignore them as the US is urging government employees to do. The last couple of days' releases have started to include a number related to the Egyptian succession, a subject of continuing interest on this blog. Most are cables from the Ambassadorships of Francis Ricciardone (2005-2008) and Margaret Scobey (2008-present). Among some of interest:

• A 2009 profile of Mubarak senior;
  

• Ricciardone on Gamal in 2006;

• A 2010 discussion of succession;

• A 2007 comparison of the Sadat succession with the present situation.

• A 2008 Ricciardone conversation with Mubarak which includes the following characterization of Gamal:

Mubarak also offered insights into the character of his younger son, Gamal, whom he described as a perfectionist from childhood. "As a schoolboy, if I gave him a notebook with one line that was not straight, he would throw a fit and demand a new one," Mubarak laughed. Furthermore, Gamal is "idealistic" and "punctual." Mubarak added, "If he (Gamal) says, 'meet me for lunch at 2:00,' he means 2:00. Set your watch by it."

I think that these cables bear out what I've said previously: classified or not, there's not much new here for those who've been discussing this stuff for years, though the personal anecdote is both a nice touch and makes Gamal seem a bit strange. The potential successors, the personalities involved, etc. are all pretty well known. But it's interesting to see it in an official document, of course.

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More Thoughts on Another Mubarak Term

Amr El Shobaki in Al-Masry al-Youm ponders, "Will Mubarak Run Again in 2011?"

Rather as I did, he does not take Ali Eddin Hilal's recent expression of confidence that the President will seek a sixth term as definitive. He notes:

Helal's uncertain statements about Gamal’s prospects in fact tell us more about the current political situation than his seemingly conclusive remarks about Mubarak’s re-nomination . Helal’s latest pronouncement will certainly open the door for all kinds of speculation about the future. But of all the possible scenarios that can unfold next year, Mubarak’s re-nomination now seems the least likely.

Now one element, clearly, has been the clear lack of popular enthusiasm for the prospect of a Gamal Mubarak succession. If the recent wave of pro-Gamal posters were a trial balloon, they seem to have been a leaden one. Husni Mubarak may not be the charismatic speaker that Gamal Abdel Nasser was, but Gamal tends to come across as having all the charisma of a banker, which is what he was before he started to dabble in politics. And, since his father has not personally indicated he won't run, Gamal can't seem too eager. So the poster campaigns are done by his allies in the Party leadership, presumably.

Many Egyptian commentators have noted that after his trip to Washington with his father, Gamal stopped making public appearances. Some think this is another sign that the inheritance project has failed. I'm guessing it's a bit early to write Gamal off completely, but note two things:

1. Gamal is by no means the unanimous choice of the entire leadership of the National Democratic Party. The "Old Guard" of the NDP has shown no outward enthusiasm; Gamal's business cronies and younger allies in the Party leadership seem to be the core of his support.
2. As I and everyone else have noted frequently, no one is going to be anointed the successor without the (at least tacit) approval of the Armed Forces and the security services. Yet those bodies, never very talkative to begin with, have been utterly silent on Gamal. A combination of a belief that the country needs a military President (an idea that has appeal to many beyond the uniformed services: see my comments on the ‘Orabi theme) and doubts about a civilian with few obvious qualifications other than his name may be at work here, though no one really is certain. What is clear is there's no bandwagon for Gamal in the uniformed services. (Some have hinted that State Security, in the Interior Ministry, is more pro-Gamal than the Army, but if they have evidence it isn't very visible.)

So, arguably, Gamal's star is fading, or at least refusing to rise, and Hilal's statement may be more a reassurance of continuity than a real statement of probability. Once the Parliamentary elections are past (November 28), the countdown for the Presidential elections will begin.

Lately some Israeli media have picked up on older speculation that ‘Omar Suleiman might be named Vice President, succeed for a year or so, and then hand off to Gamal. That strikes me as a fantasy. If a military man succeeds, even temporarily, Gamal is history. His power base goes when his father goes.

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NDP Official: Mubarak will Run for Sixth Term

Ali Eddin Hilal, a senior official of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party, has told AlHurra that Husni Mubarak will run for a sixth term next year, dismissing the idea that Gamal would succeed him. The BBC reports the story here; but if you read the version at Al-Masry al-Youm, you'll see thsat the goes on to talk about Egypt being a system of institutions not of personalities, that a stable succession system is in place, etc. All of which could suggest — as people quoted in the story do — that this is all for show and that at the last minute Mubarak can step aside if he chooses. We shall see. After the Parliamentary elections, the Presidential issue should start to gather momentum.

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