Playing the Sectarian Card

Marc Lynch notes the fact that the Saudi intervention in Bahrain and today's crackdown are part of the regime's effort to frame the issues in Bahrain as a Sunni-Shi‘a rivalry rather than an issue of democratic reforms. Among his points:

The Bahraini regime responded not only with violent force, but also by encouraging a nasty sectarianism in order to divide the popular movement and to build domestic and regional support for a crackdown. Anti-Shi'a vituperation spread through the Bahraini public arena, including both broadcast media and increasingly divided social media networks. This sectarian framing also spread through the Arab media, particularly Saudi outlets. The sectarian frame resonated with the narratives laid in the dark days of the mid-2000s, when scenes of Iraqi civil war and Hezbollah's rise in Lebanon filled Arab television screens, pro-U.S. Arab leaders spread fears of a "Shi'a Crescent", and the Saudis encouraged anti-Shi'ism in order to build support for confronting Iranian influence.

While this strategy may work in the short term it's quite dangerous in the long term, with possible destabilizing effects not only in the Gulf states but in Iraq and Lebanon, where sectarian identities already run high. The demonstrators did not portray this as a sectarian issue; the official media did. Claiming that the demonstrators are agents of Iranian influence may drive the reform movement in that direction, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Playing the sectarian card may boost further support from conservative Sunni states, but in the long run I suspect it is playing with dynamite.

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Bad Day in Bahrain

Reports indicate bloody clashes in Bahrain, which combined with the progress of Qadhafi forces in Libya make this a bad day for revolutionary movements.

King Hamad's declaration of a three-month state of emergency in Bahrain gives the security forces the authorization to break up demonstrations, and the Saudi military presence (now clearly Saudi National Guard troops in battalion strength) and UAE police contingent reinforce the Bahraini forces. While the Saudis did announce one Saudi soldier had been killed in Bahrain, by most accounts I've seen, the Saudi forces are not being used directly against the demonstrators (though there have been a few allegations to the contrary).

The dilemmas for US policy are considerable, but the GCC move may not prove to be a wise one for King Hamad and the Al Khalifa generally. The move further polarizes Sunni-Shi‘a tensions in the Gulf, and by internztionalizing the issue, may actually invite the kind of Iranian meddling it is allegedly forestalling. It makes the usually cautious Saudis appear adventurous, but if it exacerbates tensions in Bahrain, it cou;ld mean the Saudis will be there a long time, as a necessary prop for the throne. And so King Hamad could find his country becoming a virtual Saudi protectorate.

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Seznec on the Saudi Intervention

Over at Foreign Policy's Middle East channel, Jean-François Seznec sees the Saudi intervention as a slap in the face for the US and a blow for the Khalifas of Bahrain.

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Forces are from Peninsula Shield, Bahrain Says

Bahrain is now saying that the GCC (but clearly, mainly Saudi) forces which have entered Bahrain are from the GCC's Peninsula Shield force. Peninsula Shield is the GCC's joint intervention force normally based in northeastern Saudi Arabia.

The US is treading cautiously, as I expected, expressing concern about the use of troop nd sending Jeffrey Feltman to Bahrain.

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The Distraction Factor

I suspect the "GCC" intervention in Bahrain — which apparently consists of about 1000 Saudi forcesa — while a direct response to the worsening of the situation yesterday, also is taking advantage of the fact that, in the wake of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disasters, the world's media attention is focused elsewhere. While most major news networks deployed heavily to the Mideast in the past few months, the big names have moved on to Japan, while those remaining in the Mideast have to also cover both sides in the Libyan war. Yemeni forces have been using greater force with the protesters as well, in part because the whole world is now occupied elsewhere.

A more disturbing thought is that the world's distraction may not be the only reason governments are cracking down harder on the protests: despite the Arab League's unprecedented support for a No-Fly Zone in Libya, beleaguered autocrats may be emulating Qadhafi on the assumption that a hard line still works. I'm not sure that it does in the long run, but it may in the short run.

The US response is going to be interesting. A lot of Bahraini opposition figures have already noted that US Defense Secretary Gates was just there on Saturday. I don't believe it's cause and effect, but many in the region may well jump to that conclusion.

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GCC Troops Enter Bahrain; Protesters Charge "Occupation"

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) troops have moved into Bahrain to help keep order after a violent day of clashes yesterday. Other reports suggest that primarily Saudi troops are involved, in keeping with Saudi concerns over the mostly Shi‘ite protests against the Sunni government in Bahrain spreading to their own Eastern Province. While there may be a GCC fig leaf in place, I suspect we are essentially dealing with a Saudi intervention. The opposition is denouncing it as an "overt occupation," with all the negative semantic baggage the word "occupation" carries with it in the Arab world.

Unless we count Qadhafi's reliance on sub-Saharan African mercenaries in Libya, this marks the first overt cross-border intervention in the current wave of Arab protests. Last month I noted the concerns of the Saudis about events in Bahrain as a potential area of US-Saudi disagreement and friction; now we appear to have arrived at a critical moment.

It will be interesting to see the US reaction, which will require some diplomatic finesse, I suspect.

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Bahrain: the US Dilemma

What to say about Bahrain? Unlike Egypt or Tunisia, my knowledge of the country is superficial. But even more than in Egypt, the growing violence in the country and the bloody response of the authorities produces a dilemma for US policy. Not only is it unclear whether this will end well for US interests; it is unclear whether it can end well. The contradictory elements within the strategic gambles the US has made in the region, but particularly in the Gulf, may finally be coming home to roost, and the fact that Bahrain is in question involves not only critical US interests in the island nation itself (the base of the US Fifth Fleet), but also the elephant in the living room: Bahrain's neighbor at the other end of the King Fahd Causeway. And that goes to the heart of US policy in the Gulf. American sympathy for protesters demanding democracy, unarmed protesters being fired on with live ammunition, is in direct conflict with two countervailing US interests: diminishing Iranian influence on the Arab side of the Gulf, and maintaining the crucial relations with Saudi Arabia, the cornerstone of US Gulf security policy since the fall of the Shah 32 years ago this month.

This is not a partisan US issue. The Saudi relationship was a cornerstone of US policy under both Democratic and Republican Administrations. It still is. Dating as it does from the fact that it was American oil companies (as opposed to British elsewhere in the Gulf) that controlled the Saudi concessions, the Saudi relationship has been sound since FDR's day. That the Bush family, including both Bush Presidents, were close to the Saudis is well known, but it was that human rights crusader Jimmy Carter who, toasting the Shah not long before his toppling, praised Iran as one of the Gulf's twin pillars of stability. The Clinton and Obama Administrations have upheld the centrality of the Saudi relationship to US strategic interests in the Gulf.

But there may be no country in the world — and I explicitly include Israel here — where US and Saudi interests potentially might conflict more than in Bahrain. The Saudis backed Husni Mubarak to the end, but they've had disagreements with Egypt before, especially in the Nasser era. But for the Saudis, Bahrain is literally too close to home. It is both an outlet (where a Saudi can get a drink and enjoy other pleasures unavailable at home by driving across a causeway) and a potential blowback threat: if Bahrain's Shi‘ite majority were to take power from the Sunni monarchy, the substantial Shi‘ite population in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province might become restive, as they did in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution. And the Eastern Province is where the oil, the refineries, the pipeline heads, the oil ports, almost all of the industry, is based. The Saudis are likely to back the King of Bahrain to the hilt, but unless there is some progress towards dialogue and away from bloodshed in Bahrain, the US may face an insoluble dilemma.

If Bahrain's Shi‘ite majority were to actually control the country's policies (with or without continuing the Sunni monarchy), that would not automatically mean it would become pro-Iranian; while some Bahraini Shi‘ites are of Persian origin, the majority are Arab. But implacable Saudi hostility to a Shi‘ite-dominated Bahraini government might give a representative government nowhere else to turn. The Shi‘ite government of Iraq has its own problems. Forced to choose between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, the US would have little choice but to side with the Saudis, however unpopular such a choice would be.

Finding some formula for negotiations and genuine liberalization that does not overtly threaten the Saudis' own security would be the ideal policy to pursue in Bahrain, but little of what has happened in the last 48 hours suggest any eagerness on the part of the King to do so. And he is no doubt hearing frequently from the neighbors across the causeway urging him to hang tough.

This will be a three-day holiday weekend in the US, with Monday off. I doubt if events will wait till Tuesday, but weekend posting will be limited to critical events.

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About That Vulture

Okay, by now you've heard about the Israeli spy vulture, since it's being commented upon all over the place. Ha'aretz broke the story in English with this story, and it's been picked up by the BBC and drawn a lot of attention. A vulture, tagged in Israel to track its migration, was found in Saudi Arabia with the Israeli tag on it, stirring local comment and suggestions it is part of a "Zionist plot."

Now it's true that many in the Arab world tend to blame Mossad for everything; some Egyptians are blaming the Alexandria church attack on Israel, and last month the Governor of Southern Sinai suggested that the Sharm al-Sheikh shark attacks might have been an Israeli plot. Such conspiracy theories are laughable and deplorable and silly, especially when a public official like an Egyptian governor are behind the allegations.

At first glance, the vulture story looks like a repeat of the shark story. As this story has been repeated, we're seeing such headlines as "Saudi Arabia Accuses Israel of Using Vultures for Spying," and reports that Saudi security has "arrested" the vulture.

But wait, let's go back to that original Ha'aretz story:

. . . residents and local reporters told Saudi Arabia's Al-Weeam newspaper that the matter seemed to be a "Zionist plot."

The accusations went viral, with hundreds of posts on Arabic-language websites and forums claiming that the "Zionists" had trained these birds for espionage.

"Residents and locsl reporters" told a local paper that seems to mostly be an online site that it looked like a Zionist plot, and "Arabic-language websites and forums" took up the theme. Where is the "Saudi Arabia Accuses Israel" in that? Internet forums in this counry are debating whether the recent bird kill in Arkansas is the result of aliens or the end times; Internet forums are not sovereign nations.

It seems to me that this is more likely a case of some rural folk catching the bird, turning it in, and telling a local reporter they suspected an Israeli plot. Then the forums pick it up. None of the major Saudi media have picked it up that I've seen, though I may have missed it. On the other hand, Arab News does have a report about the dangers of spreading unfounded rumors.

Are conspiracy theories and paranoid suspicions too widespread in the Arab world? Yes indeed. But unlike the shark story, which involved a senior government official, this one seems to be based on local speculation and blown way out of proportion by the media.

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Qadhafi Claims Saudi Roots

"Gadhafi Says He Is of Saudi Origin." Hmm. That's an Emirati English report citing a Saudi local news website where I couldn't locate the story, but here's another Saudi local news website that has it if you want an Arabic original.

Given the bad blood between Qadhafi and Saudi King ‘Abdullah, as seen here in 2009, I'm not sure the Saudis will be pleased with this supposed news. The details:

The tribal chiefs went to Libya to meet its leader at the request of Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Salim Al Sahab, who disclosed to them that Gadhafi’s ancestors had lived in Najd and that his distant cousins belong to Anza tribe.

The seven chiefs from the Dahamisha and Anza tribes met Gadhafi and told him they were asked by the Kuwaiti Emir to come to Libya and talk about the relationship between him and those tribes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

“The Libyan leader told them that his ancestors belonged to the Dahamisha and Anza tribes but they left the Peninsula to escape revenge…he said nearly 20 families of his ancestors left Najd to Egypt before heading for Tunisia and finally settling in Libya,” the paper said, quoting a tribal chief, Mohammed Al Qahs.

“The Libyan leader confirmed to them what the Kuwaiti Emir had told them about his relationship to those tribes who now live in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait…he made clear tribal vendetta at that time forced his ancestors to emigrate.”

Okay, if Brother Leader says so. It is probably more likely to be true than when he told American Indian visitors that they were of Libyan descent.

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Saudi Flag Planted At South Pole

Seriously, according to Arab News. Picture from them. I'm not sure that this is earth-shattering news, but it did raise a question in my mind.

Back when the Saudi astronaut went up on the shuttle some years back, there had to be a ruling by religious leaders about what the times of prayer might be when you're circling the earth every 90 minutes or so. The article doesn't say, but wouldn't something similar arise at 90 degrees south, where you're standing in all the time zones at once? I think in the space case they decided to use Mecca time, but may be misremembering that.

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King ‘Abdullah Leaves New York Hospital

King ‘Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has left a New York hospital after his two rounds of back surgery. He will spend some recovery time in New York.

The King's surgery, and the precarious health of the Crown Prince, have sparked speculation about the line of succession, though the Saudis do not care for such speculation, and a Saudi paper last month decried the British press' speculation about British succession, without, of course, drawing any parallels.

The fact of the matter is that the Family does not discuss its inner dynamics, and however much intellectual exercise we may get from various succession scenarios, no one who knows is going to talk, and no one who's talking actually knows.

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New Paramilitary Force for Saudi Intelligence

According to this story in Arab News, Saudi intelligence chief Prince Muqrin has announced the formation of a new force, apparently intended for counterterrorism, under the intelligence service. From the pictujre it looks like a paramilitary force, which is probably why the article notes that it will fully cooperate with the Interior Ministry. Without more information, it's hard to know why this isn't a redundant force to begin with: doesn't Saudi General Intelligence already cooperate with Interior, which has the police power?

Offhand I'm guessing this is the usual bureaucratic redundancy familiar to most security services in most countries: of course the Interior Ministry already has such forces, but Intelligence did not. Now Prince Muqrin has one, too.

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The Troubles in Medina

Clashes last week in the holy city of Medina that led to 38 arrests have been attributed to youth gangs by the Saudi press, but as Brian Whitaker notes, the fact that one report noted the youths wore black, and the fact the clashes occurred on ‘Ashura, give away the sectarian nature of the troubles. Sunni-Shi‘i clashes are a sensitive subject in Saudi Arabia, and most often occur in the Eastern Province where most Saudi Shi‘a live, but Medina, with its close links to the Prophet's family, is also important: Whitaker notes the importance of he Al-Baqi Cemetery, but doesn't mention that four of the 12 Imams are buried there. (Numbers two and four through six.) Only Iraq has more Imam burials.

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Snakes on a Plane . . . and a SQUIRREL?

No, I never saw the movie of that name. But The National reports that Abu Dhabi airport had an interesting security event:

The Saudi passenger was said to have been carrying four snakes, two parrots and a squirrel in his hand luggage.

He was caught at the first security checkpoint after arriving at Abu Dhabi International Airport on Etihad Airlines flight EY471 from Jakarta, which landed in the capital shortly before midnight on Thursday.

The animals were not licensed for international transport. They had no health certification, nor confirmation that they were not on any endangered list.

Abu Dhabi police officials expressed surprise that the passenger had cleared security at Jakarta with the animals.

Perhaps Jakarta's version of the TSA isn't quite as intrusive. Also, I realize the snakes and parrots may be exotic and thus valuable specimens with a high resale value, but he was smuggling a squirrel? If he gets out on bail, he can have his pick of my backyard, no charge.

This is likely to be one of those stories where you never see a follow-up, and are left scratching your head forever.

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Saudi Paper Criticizes British Press on Royals

This blog has taken no notice of Prince William's recent engagement; the ghost of my Irish great-grandmother would haunt me if I showed much interest in the House of Windsor. But I did find it amusing to see a writer in the Saudi English-language paper Arab News' indignation that the British press keeps running polls on whether Prince William, instead of his father, should succeed when Queen Elizabeth goes.

I'm sure it has absolutely nothing to do with the news that King ‘Abdullah is heading to the US for medical treatment and his Crown Prince also-ailing Prince Sultan (also in his 80s) is filling in, but the author is rather livid that the British press might speculate about lines of succession:

Since the public has no say whatsoever when it comes to the royal line of succession, such polls are not only inconsequential but are also hurtful to the royal family. The Daily Mail got into the act as well with a Harris poll showing 48 percent of respondents prefer King William to King Charles.

For one thing, such questions are premature when the queen at age 82 is still healthy and has sworn to serve as monarch until her last breath. Indeed, if she carries the same genes as the late Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother she could remain on the throne for up to 20 years. Any speculation as to who should succeed her is disrespectful and akin to dancing on her grave.

No, nothing to do with succession speculation anywhere else. No lèse majesté for us please, we're Saudi.

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Saudi King to US for Tests

Saudi King ‘Abdullah will undergo tests in the United States after hospitalization for back pain and a blood clot. This followed his delegating supervisory duties for the Hajj due to a slipped disc.

Though ‘Abdullah's health has not been as precarious as his Crown Prince/brother Prince Sultan's, he is 86 years old. Sultan, who will run the Kingdom in his absence, was himself absent for most of last year, undergoing surgery in the US and a long recovery period at his palace in Agadir, Morocco.

The Hajj supervision was delegated to Prince Nayef, considered unofficially next in line after Sultan. The advancing age of the senior generation is likely to provoke new speculation about when and how the succession will pass to the next generation, the grandsons of the founder.

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More Rain in Mecca

Following Wednesday's rains during the Hajj, the second year in a row during which Mecca faced rain during the pilgrimage, heavy downpours struck again yesterday, as pilgrims were leaving Mina. This time at 3 pm, as the Hajj was approaching its end.

As noted Wednesday, this isn't likely when the Hajj advances into the summer months; most of Mecca's rare rain falls in November. But it makes this year's pilgrimage, like last year's, memorable, though the flooding last year appears to have been more dangerous.

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As Hajj Ends, Rain Falls in Mecca ... Again

On the second day of stoning the devil, as the Hajj draws to an end, the skies have opened and it has rained in Mecca and Mina. Many hajjis are seeing it as a sign from heaven that their sacrifices have been acceptable. And curiously, last year heavy rains and flooding hit Mecca at the beginning of the Hajj.

Average precipitation in Mecca is just over an inch a year, which would seem to suggest something unusual is happening for it to rain two years running, but then again, more than half of that inch of rain falls in November, and since the feast moves around the calendar, and has been in November the past two years, perhaps it's natural. Or global warming.

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‘Id Mubarak: The Feast of ‘Id al-‘Adha

‘Id Mubarak to my Muslim readers. ‘Id al-‘Adha, the Feast of Sacrifice or Greater ‘Id (also Qurban Bayram and many other names in many languages), begins today. The major festival of the Muslim year (the other major feast being the ‘Id that ends Ramadan), it coincides with the sacrifice carried out in Mecca in conjunction with the Hajj.

Last year, the ‘Id overlapped with the American Thanksgiving holiday, so my greetings were offered without much background. But since this blog is intended to educate as well as entertain, I'd like to take a little more time with it this year.

The Feast of Sacrifice is generally seen as the most important religious feast, hence the fact that it is often called the ‘Id al-Kabir or "Greater ‘Id," and it coincides with the central ritual of Islam, the fifth pillar of Islam, the hajj. Animals are sacrificed (the meat then distributed to the poor) in a ritual of great antiquity, one Muslims themselves say partially predates Islam itself.

What most non-Muslims probably do not know is the fact that, like the hajj itself, the ‘Id commemorates a story known to Jews and Christians as well: God's demand that Abraham sacrifice his son, only to relent and substitute an animal sacrifice when Abraham had demonstrated his obedience even in such a horrific task. The Qur'an and Islamic tradition say the son was Isma‘il (Ishmael in the Bible) rather than Isaac (Ishaq in the Qur'an) as in the Book of Genesis, but the story and its moral is virtually identical.

Now, these days Abraham, venerated by Judaism (Avraham), Christianity (Abraham), and Islam (Ibrahim) is often more of a source of conflict among the three faiths which claim him than a unifying factor, but he is a shared Patriarch of all three "Abrahamic" faiths: Our Father Abraham to Jews, the "first Muslim" and "friend of God" to Muslims, and a familiar patriarch to Christians, though he is not quite so central for them. Whether you consider Abraham a historical figure, a mythic culture hero, a Bronze Age myth or some combination of these, he is a potent symbol, and as I have noted, his tomb in Hebron is second only to the Temple Mount/Haram in Jerusalem as a disputed holy place.

The story of Abraham's willingness to sacrifice his son, whether Isaac or Ishmael, strikes most modern people as something incomprehensible, but his absolute obedience is central to the symbolic message of the story: his profound obedience is what led God to proclaim his covenant with Abraham.

The hajj itself is profoundly linked to the Abraham story: the running between Safa and Marwa, part of the ritual, reflects Hagar's search for water for the infant Isma‘il, rewarded by the discovery of the well Zamzam, the water of which is drunk by every hajji, and the sacrifice of an animal today represents the sacrifice of Abraham. The Ka‘aba itself is said to have been first built by Abraham.

Despite the profound divisions Abraham's legacy sometimes creates today, the Abrahamic core of this particular feast could potentially, in some alternate universe, make it a potential meeting place for the three "Abrahamic" faiths.

Interestingly, Arab News, a Saudi English-language daily whose readership includes not only Westerners but many South Asians, including non-Muslims, takes this sort of "ecumenical" tack in its editorial today, seeking to link the interfaith dialogue promoted by King ‘Abdullah with the Abrahamic common ground the feast invokes. If such sentiments could prevail year round and not just on holidays, the region might be a better place.

‘Id Mubarak wa Sa‘id.

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Class and the Hajj

The Hajj is traditionally a great leveller: since pilgtrims all wear the ihram clothing so there is no visible distinction of class. But, as this report from Al-Jazeera English points out, distinctions between rich and poor have re-emerged in an era of five-star hotels:

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