Quick Takes

A couple of quick thoughts, with more to come later:

• ‘Omar Suleiman as Vice President (sorry, Gamal) and Ahmad Shafiq as Prime Minister would have been daring moves if made, say, on Monday. It finally offers a vision of potential successors who aren't named Mubarak.
  

• But Suleiman's role as head of General Intelligence may make him too suspect after all that has happened. (Though General Intelligence has never been as intrusive in the life of the average citizen as the dreaded State Security.)His age and his health are also issues as far as succession goes.

• Ahmad Shafiq is a respected former head of the Air Force (and more recently Civil Aviation Minister). But the Air Force is Mubarak's old service. Again, these moves made sooner might have forestalled the revolt. But made now, they may be too little, too late.

• Crowds tried to storm the Interior Ministry in the Lazoghly neighborhood. Home base of State Security, "Lazoghly," as it's sometimes known, is the Bastille of this revolt.

I'll have more comments later.

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Gamal Makes Nothing Very Clear

Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party finally and belatedly held its Annual Conference, postponed until after the Parliamentary elections, last week. Pressed by reporters, Gamal Mubarak made nothing very clear at all about next year's Presidential elections: they'll be in September and the NDP will choose its nominee by July. We pretty much knew that.

So it looks like the question of which Mubarak will run is as unclear as ever.

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King ‘Abdullah Leaves New York Hospital

King ‘Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has left a New York hospital after his two rounds of back surgery. He will spend some recovery time in New York.

The King's surgery, and the precarious health of the Crown Prince, have sparked speculation about the line of succession, though the Saudis do not care for such speculation, and a Saudi paper last month decried the British press' speculation about British succession, without, of course, drawing any parallels.

The fact of the matter is that the Family does not discuss its inner dynamics, and however much intellectual exercise we may get from various succession scenarios, no one who knows is going to talk, and no one who's talking actually knows.

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Was Ras al-Khaimah Succession Not as Smooth as it Seemed?

Via The Arabist, a report from Current Intelligence claiming that the recent succession in Ras-Khaimah was not as smooth as it seemed at the time. This report claims the older son, the deposed Crown Prince Khalid bin Saqr, sought to claim the throne when his father died, until UAE forces moved in to guarantee the succession of Prince Saud, now the Ruler. For more on the dueling Crown Princes, see this post (and read the comments carefully: my commenters know RAK and I don't) and for all my Ras al-Khaimah posts, see here.

I don't know the reliability of this particular link but The Arabist seems to trust it, and I can assure you if this occurred it won't be in the UAE newspapers.

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UAE Bids Farewell to Saqr; Welcomes Sa‘ud

From the UAE English papers, farewells to Sheikh Saqr of Ras al-Khaimah: The National emphasizes his role as the last of the UAE's founding fathers, while Gulf News offers a review of his long life. Certainly in his 92 Hijri years (about 90 Gregorian) he saw his territory grow from a remote pearl fishery to a constituent part of a modern state. (For a somewhat less adulatory appreciation, try The Daily Telegraph.)

Also, two profiles of the new ruler, Sheikh Sa‘ud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, again from The National and Gulf News.

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Ruler of Ras al-Khaimah Dies at 92

Sheikh Saqr al-Qasimi, Ruler of the UAE Emirate of Ras al-Khaimah, has died at age 92. He was reportedly the world's oldest reigning monarch (though not longest reigning: the King of Thailand holds that title), and died at dawn today.

His presumed successor is the Crown Prince, Sheikh Sa‘ud, though the succession has been disputed by the deposed and exiled Crown Prince, Sheikh Khalid; see my earlier post on the issue, but also be sure to read the exchange of comments by people who know more about it than I do.

Ras al-Khaimah is the northernmost emirate of the UAE, and its name can be translated as "top of the tent," (or Cape of the Tent), though whether that relates to its geography, I don't know.

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More Thoughts on Another Mubarak Term

Amr El Shobaki in Al-Masry al-Youm ponders, "Will Mubarak Run Again in 2011?"

Rather as I did, he does not take Ali Eddin Hilal's recent expression of confidence that the President will seek a sixth term as definitive. He notes:

Helal's uncertain statements about Gamal’s prospects in fact tell us more about the current political situation than his seemingly conclusive remarks about Mubarak’s re-nomination . Helal’s latest pronouncement will certainly open the door for all kinds of speculation about the future. But of all the possible scenarios that can unfold next year, Mubarak’s re-nomination now seems the least likely.

Now one element, clearly, has been the clear lack of popular enthusiasm for the prospect of a Gamal Mubarak succession. If the recent wave of pro-Gamal posters were a trial balloon, they seem to have been a leaden one. Husni Mubarak may not be the charismatic speaker that Gamal Abdel Nasser was, but Gamal tends to come across as having all the charisma of a banker, which is what he was before he started to dabble in politics. And, since his father has not personally indicated he won't run, Gamal can't seem too eager. So the poster campaigns are done by his allies in the Party leadership, presumably.

Many Egyptian commentators have noted that after his trip to Washington with his father, Gamal stopped making public appearances. Some think this is another sign that the inheritance project has failed. I'm guessing it's a bit early to write Gamal off completely, but note two things:

1. Gamal is by no means the unanimous choice of the entire leadership of the National Democratic Party. The "Old Guard" of the NDP has shown no outward enthusiasm; Gamal's business cronies and younger allies in the Party leadership seem to be the core of his support.
2. As I and everyone else have noted frequently, no one is going to be anointed the successor without the (at least tacit) approval of the Armed Forces and the security services. Yet those bodies, never very talkative to begin with, have been utterly silent on Gamal. A combination of a belief that the country needs a military President (an idea that has appeal to many beyond the uniformed services: see my comments on the ‘Orabi theme) and doubts about a civilian with few obvious qualifications other than his name may be at work here, though no one really is certain. What is clear is there's no bandwagon for Gamal in the uniformed services. (Some have hinted that State Security, in the Interior Ministry, is more pro-Gamal than the Army, but if they have evidence it isn't very visible.)

So, arguably, Gamal's star is fading, or at least refusing to rise, and Hilal's statement may be more a reassurance of continuity than a real statement of probability. Once the Parliamentary elections are past (November 28), the countdown for the Presidential elections will begin.

Lately some Israeli media have picked up on older speculation that ‘Omar Suleiman might be named Vice President, succeed for a year or so, and then hand off to Gamal. That strikes me as a fantasy. If a military man succeeds, even temporarily, Gamal is history. His power base goes when his father goes.

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Simon Henderson on Prince Bandar

Over at Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel, Simon Henderson offers his take on the return of Prince Bandar. He sees it as possibly related to other repositionings in anticipation of succession in in the Kingdom. As he himself acknowledges, those who talk as if they know what's going on in the Royal Family, don't (and those that know don't talk), but it's interesting speculation.

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NDP Official: Mubarak will Run for Sixth Term

Ali Eddin Hilal, a senior official of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party, has told AlHurra that Husni Mubarak will run for a sixth term next year, dismissing the idea that Gamal would succeed him. The BBC reports the story here; but if you read the version at Al-Masry al-Youm, you'll see thsat the goes on to talk about Egypt being a system of institutions not of personalities, that a stable succession system is in place, etc. All of which could suggest — as people quoted in the story do — that this is all for show and that at the last minute Mubarak can step aside if he chooses. We shall see. After the Parliamentary elections, the Presidential issue should start to gather momentum.

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