The Most Talked About Man in Egypt

Who has his own Twitter hashtag, several Facebook pages dedicated to him, and is the subject of intense discussion in the social media today? Why, it's the guy behind ‘Omar Suleiman.

In several of Suleiman's last TV appearances, including the brief one announcing Mubarak's resignation, an unidentified man appears behind the Egyptian Vice President. He has the very serious look of a bodyguard or security man, but if so, why did he appear on camera? In the picture at left, it's hard to avoid wondering if he's holding a gun at Suleiman's back or otherwise making sure he says what he's supposed to, after Mubarak's Thursday night fakeout. For the past day or so there's been a lot of speculation and a lot of jokes in circulation ("State TV announces there was no one behind ‘Omar Suleiman").

All the jokes aside, it turns out he's Staff Lt. Col. Hussein Sharif, commander of something called Group 64 of the Egyptian Special Forces. What he was doing there is still unclear. Bodyguard or enforcer?

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Tomorrow Could Be Critical

The clear mixture of disappointment and anger in Tahrir Square when Mubarak only transferred authority but did not resign suggest that tomorrow's demonstrations will be angrier than before. With what amounts to a general strike under way as well, tomorrow could in fact be particularly dangerous. Once again it appears as if Mubarak, and perhaps ‘Omar Suleiman as well, are not comprehending the situation and still assuming they can ride it out. A lot of people are comparing it to Ben Ali's third, "I have understood you," speech. (Ben Ali said he'd leave at the end of his term. He left the next day.)

Mubarak was also rather ambiguous about the delegation of powers. The Egyptian Ambassador to Washington has said that Suleiman has been given all Presidential authority, but that was not clear in the speech, at least not clear to the crowds in Tahrir. (Also, about three or four years ago a new round of constitutional amendments said the President cannot delegate the power to dissolve Parliament or amend the constitution to the Vice President.

The terms of the Military Council's "communique nunber one", and statements made to the demonstrators by senior military officials, certainly led the crowds to assume Mubarak would do more than they perceive him to have done. Now the crowds are furious. What is the Army thinking? Will there be a communique number two?

Tomorrow may hold some answers. People have had their hopes raised and then disappointed. They are angry. I'm reminded of the lines in Herman Melville's poem about the anger over the assassination of Lincoln:

There is sobbing of the strong,
And a pall upon the land;
But the People in their weeping
Bare the iron hand;
Beware the People weeping
When they bare the iron hand.

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The Man Who Never Speaks, Speaks

Vice President ‘Omar Suleiman has gone on Egyptian TV to say that he has been entrusted to begin negotiations with the opposition in the next days. The man whose face never appeared in newspapers till a few years ago is now the apparent face of the government, as Mubarak remains wherever he may be. (Sharm al-Sheikh?, surrounded by those troops the Israelis approved deploying?)

Combined with the Army statement, I suspect the beginning of a transition, in which General Suleiman and perhaps the Army command discuss with the opposition's representatives what comes next.

I don't think Suleiman would be accepted by the opposition as a long-term leader, but as someone the Army would trust he could be used to usher in a transition.

If not the beginning of the end, at least, to steal from Churchill, also addressing an Egyptian subject (El Alamein), today's events may be the end of the beginning.

But tomorrow may be tense. Amid talk of a huge demonstration assembling from all over the country tomorrow, the government has halted train service throughout Egypt. After shutting down the Internet, the phones (now back), the banks (and the ATMs are out too, perhaps due to the Internet), Egypt has now committed itself to guaranteeing the trains won't run on time.

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Rearranging Deck Chairs or Preparing a Transition?

I can think of two possible readings of the ‘Omar Suleiman appointment as Vice President of Egypt, the first Mubarak has named. The obvious one is that he sought to reassure about the succession (and deep six the Gamal Mubarak idea), but in the present context that seems like the proverbial rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

The more optimistic reading is that Mubarak named Suleiman to give himself time to get out the door; to arrange a smooth transition to someone the Army knows and trusts, but who in turn could preside over the transition to some sort of coalition government to prepare for new elections.

I said it was an optimistic reading. So far, Mubarak doesn't seem to get what's happening. Someone tweeted yesterday, citing Ben Ali's "I have understood you" speech, that Mubarak's speech was more, "I'm sorry, I didn't understand you? Could you say it again?"

Tomorrow may see the naming of the new Cabinet, which could give us a clue as to whether Mubarak might move towards a transition, or whether he still doesn't get it.

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Quick Takes

A couple of quick thoughts, with more to come later:

• ‘Omar Suleiman as Vice President (sorry, Gamal) and Ahmad Shafiq as Prime Minister would have been daring moves if made, say, on Monday. It finally offers a vision of potential successors who aren't named Mubarak.
  

• But Suleiman's role as head of General Intelligence may make him too suspect after all that has happened. (Though General Intelligence has never been as intrusive in the life of the average citizen as the dreaded State Security.)His age and his health are also issues as far as succession goes.

• Ahmad Shafiq is a respected former head of the Air Force (and more recently Civil Aviation Minister). But the Air Force is Mubarak's old service. Again, these moves made sooner might have forestalled the revolt. But made now, they may be too little, too late.

• Crowds tried to storm the Interior Ministry in the Lazoghly neighborhood. Home base of State Security, "Lazoghly," as it's sometimes known, is the Bastille of this revolt.

I'll have more comments later.

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