Another Angry Friday

Today will be another protest Friday, another day of rage in many countries. In Syria the protesters are calling it Martyr's Friday, after the dead in Deraa and Latakia. In Yemen, both pro-Salih and anti-Salih forces will assemble in force. Bahrain, though the lid is on tightly, is under a lot of pressure. In Egypt yet another Million Man March has been proclaimed, as "Rescue the Revolution Day."

More as the day goes on. Meanwhile check Twitter hashtag #arabfriday.

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Will March be the Month of No Resignations?

Yemen's ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih looked close to an exit late last week; on Friday even some of his own Cabinet were talking about him being gone in a day or two. Now he's hanging tough once again, insisting 95% of the people support him and that it's the other 5% who should leave. He has a track record of promising not to run again and then doing so, which is why his promise to quit by the end of the year did not impress the opposition.

If Salih hangs on, it suggests we will not see an autocrat departing office in March, having gotten used to the revolution-of-the-month, with Ben Ali in January and Mubarak in February. Of course, the speed with which upheaval has spread is still extraordinary by any historical standard. But Qadhafi is hanging on (regaining ground again today), while Bahrain has plugged its volcano for the time being, with Saudi support. It's still early days in Syria. I would expect there to be more leaders toppled from power in coming weeks and months, but it's unlikely to be universal, and there will be those who are able to reform ahead of the tsunami. I do think Qadhafi will not now recover full power, and that Salih has already lost it in Yemen but is in denial; but I've learned not to make predictions about this amazing time, when so few of the old rules apply. Like the Red Queen, I've learned to believe six impossible things before breakfast.

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WSJ: Both Salih and Muhsin to Step Aside?

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Yemeni President Salih and his kinsman/ally/now rival General ‘Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, have negotiated a deal under which both men would step down and transfer power to a civilian transitional council. The report, not confirmed elsewhere as far as I know (officially, Salih is still offering to step down at the end of the year) suggests the deal might be in place as early as Saturday.

We'll see. Salih is known for changing his mind, and this is so far just one press report. But if tomorrow comes anywhere near last Friday in the violence of the protests, things might happen faster.

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Yemen: Suspicion of Gen. Muhsin's Motives

At first glance, yesterday's announcement by powerful Yemeni General ‘Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar that he was breaking with President Salih and pledging that hs troops would protect the protesters looked like it might be the coup de grace for Salih, as it still very well may prove to be. But a lot of veteran Yemen-watchers are highly suspicious of General Muhsin's motives. Sometimes called the second most powerful man in the country, he may well be maneuvering to make sure he lands on the winning side in a post-Salih Yemen, but not necessarily by supporting the protesters. The Arabist collects some of the commentary. including posts by Greg Johnsen and Brian Whitaker. Clearly, Muhsin's move isn't good news for Salih, but it may not be good news for the protesters either, since Muhsin may be trying to protect the interests of the Sanhan tribe beyond Salih's own immediate entourage (the sons and nephews who are still loyal), as well as assure the survival of the Army leadership. It sounds as if those seeking real change in Yemen might be well-advised to steer clear of their newest "ally."

Another interesting point is Whitaker's suggestion that Saudi Arabia may either be trying to keep Salih in power or broker a soft landing when he departs, in order to prevent the emergence of a more radical regime to their south. While the US has urged peaceful change, its reliance on Salih as an ally against al-Qa‘ida has kept it from openly urging him to leave. I'm no Yemen expert, but this is seeming more and more like a fin du regime week there.

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Nearing the Endgame in Yemen

While the world has been watching Libya, the power base of President Salih in Yemen has been unraveling. Major Army defections, diplomats quitting around the world. It looks like we're nearing the endgame there.

UPDATE: Today was apparently Salih's birthday. I wonder if he had a cake?

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A Violent Weekend All Over

After a quiet day trip to the Shenandoah Valley today, some of it spent in the nearly sealed off Fort Valley of the Massanutten range where Verizon's famous red map apparently does not reach and my phone was unable to get either a signal or the Internet, I return to learn that:

• The strikes on Libya are well under way (no link here, as it's everywhere);

• 50 mortar rounds were fired into southern Israel from Gaza today, and Israel is promising retaliation;

• Yemeni forces fired live ammunition against protesters in Aden, a day after more than 40 people were killed in Sanaa;

• The total dead in the Syrian border town of Deraa yesterday is now five, and at the funeral for two of them there were renewed protests;

• And Mohamed ElBaradei was attacked while trying to vote in the Egyptian referendum.
  

Well, it started as a relaxing weekend. I guess I should have stayed off the grid.

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Yemen Declares State of Emergency after Bloody Day

Yemen has now declared a State of Emergency after a bloody day in which over 40 people were killed in Sanaa, in what the opposition is characterizing as a massacre. The government is denying that its security forces opened fire. The tensions in Yemen are growing rapidly despite President Salih's attempts to defuse them.

Meanwhile, in Bahrain, the authorities have torn down the distinctive monument that stood in the Pearl Roundabout, which had become a symbol of the resistance.

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Protests Reach Salih's Heartland

Yemen's protests have reached Dhamar, in the heartland of President Salih's personal power. For all the horrifying imagery of Qadhafi's aircraft bombing his own people, I wonder if Yemen isn't moving more quickly toward a resolution or at least a breaking point.

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Salih: I Didn't Mean it, Really!

Yesterday, Yemen's beleaguered President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih took the traditional route in explaining the demonstrations against him: he blamed the US and Israel. After the White House criticized the comments, and perhaps on reflecting that the US is, right now, just about his Best Friend Remaining (unlike Libya, Al-Qa‘ida really is active in Yemen) , today he called the US National Security Adviser to apologize for any "misunderstanding" his remarks might have caused. Like so many other leaders who've held the same job since well back in the last century (1978 in Salih's case, longer than Mubarak but less than Qadhafi), he may still tend to forget that the 24/7 satellite news channels, the Internet, and Twitter aren't going to let you say one thing to your domestic audience and another to your foreign allies, like you could get away with back in the good old days.

And now, there are reports that Salih has agreed to a plan that would call for him to step down by the end of the year.

I'm sure the opposition will remember that he has changed his mind before (he promised not to run in 2006, was "persuaded" to change his mind, and won 77% of the vote), so I'm not sure a promise about what he'll do 10 months from now will sell to the folks in the streets, even if he's sold it to the opposition parties.

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National Unity Government in Yemen?

Al Jazeera English is reporting that President Salih will name a National Unity Government in Yemen within the next 24 hours. This comes, of course, after the big Hashid tribal confederation's leader bailed on him over the weekend, as he continues to lose allies.

If it seems like you've seen this plot before, it's the same pattern we saw with Ben Ali and Mubarak: try to ignore the demands and/or blame the media until the people's anger has reached a boil, and then make a half-measure concession that might have saved your job if you'd made it a month earlier, but is now a day late and a dollar short. (He had also already made the pledge not to run for another term, as had Ben Ali and Mubarak.) Perhaps it's not too late for Salih, but the pattern is familiar and the concessions very late in coming.

Qadhafi, of course, took a far bloodier route, but there are, or until the past few days were, no competing centers of power in Libya.

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Yemen: Salih Loses the Tribes

Remember this picture I posted a few days ago? The fourth man there, ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih, is getting even lonelier. Hussein ‘Abdullah al-Ahmar, head of the Hashid tribal confederation and son of a very powerful father until his death a few years ago, has jumped ship. Salih's own native tribe, which is allied with the much more powerful Hashid, is also protesting, and the other big northern tribal confederation, the Bakil, was reportedly present as well. The southern part of the country is already alienated; if Salih loses the big northern tribes, it may be time for that guesthouse in Jidda.

I suspect the news networks now can figure out where they need to deploy as soon as Libya wraps up.

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Why are These Men Smiling?

The Enduring America blog has this great picture and is holding a caption contest here.

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Salih Won't Run Again EIther

Now it's Yemeni President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih who says he won't run again when his term expires in 2013; nor will he seek to run his son as his successor. He came to power in then-North Yemen in 1978, so he has ruled even longer than Husni Mubarak.

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Yemen Army Fails to Find AQAP Even as World Suspects AQAP in Bomb Plot

In an unfortunate piece of timing, Yemen's Saba News Agency announced today that the Yemen Army has ended its operations in the al-Kur Mountains of Shabwa Province, after failing to locate any Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Penuinsula (AQAP) elements there. This comes at a time when the US and UK assume AQAP is behind today's interception of explosive devices on cargo flights.

AQAP, which emerged from the merger of the Yemeni and Saudi branches of Al-Qa‘ida, has become one of the most active movements in recent years, with operations ranging from the USS Cole to the attempt to assassinate Prince Muhammad bin Nayef of Saudi Arabia. Lately, they have of course shown a serious interest in striking inside the United States, with reported links to both the Fort Hood shooter and the "underwear bomber" of last Christmas. One reason for the focus on the US may be the presence in Yemen of Anwar al-‘Awlaqi, the New Mexico-born radical of Yemeni descent.

Western intelligence sources reportedly believe ‘Awlaqi is hiding in the mountains of Shabwa, despite the Yemeni Army's aforementioned inability to find any AQAP there. (One reason he will be hard to find: before the British left South Yemen, a major part of what is now Shabwa was called the Sultanate of ‘Awlaq. His tribal roots are there, and if the tribes are protecting him, the government won't find him. So far the Predators haven't found him either, though they've reportedly been given the right to take him out. Usama bin Ladin's ancestral roots, of course, lie in neighboring Hadramawt.)

AQAP is serious about striking the US: earlier this year they published a colorful, English-language jihadi magazine called Inspire, the first issue of which included the article "How to Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom," (a pressure cooker is involved). The second issue was released just a few weeks ago. It offers (in a section it calls "Open Source Jihad") advice to potential Jihadis living in the West on how to conceal their identity, avoid suspicion, and plan their own attacks. (Since it includes bombmaking instructions and other unpleasant — and illegal — stuff, I've linked to the Jihadica analysis, not the magazine itself, but copies are out there, and I've looked the first two issues over.)

I suspect we're going to hear a lot more about AQAP and ‘Awlaqi in coming days.

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Asymmetry 101

UPDATE: The President says the packages did contain explosive material. I don't think that changes the basic point below that a limited threat can nevertheless produce asymmetric levels of disruption.

Today's international security alerts still have a lot of unanswered questions attached, so bear in mind that I'm offering some first reactions here, not a considered evaluation. So far it seems that the hard evidence is a few suspicious packages originating in Yemen and reportedly sent to Chicago, perhaps to Chicago synagogues. One is described as a toner cartridge with attached circuit boards. No explosives have been confirmed [SEE ABOVE].

So far, international cargo has been scrutinized at Dubai, East Midlands Airport in the UK, and Newark and Philadelphia in the US, while an Emirates flight origainating in Yemen has been escorted in to New York, first by Canadian and then by US fighter jets.

Now, assuming no explosives turn up, what should we make of all this? Some are suggesting a "dry run," but there isn't much evidence that Al-Qa‘ida believes in dry runs. More likely might be an attempt to test defenses, to judge security by watching the reaction of the security forces in the UK and US.

But I think it's just as likely that the whole purpose was simply to force the security services to spend a lot of time and man-hours coping with these potential threats. If it is, as many seem to be assuming, Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and possibly, once again, the long arm of Anwar ‘Awlaqi, it's worth noting that he has talked in the past about emphasizing opreations that produce maximum disruption for limited effort, as opposed to spectacular 9/11-style attacks. This could be an example if, as seems possible, several countries and much of the cargo system has been snarled by a few packages: and packages that might attract attention (if reports that the packages were addressed to Chicago synagogues are true, that would seem to be planting a red flag and waving it).

This could be either a test of defenses or simply a ploy to occupy security forces and force expenditures of effort and money. If so, it may be a classic case of Asymmetric Warfare 101. More later if developments warrant.

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