This is Probably Not Going to Help King Hamad

As Yossi Melman notes in today's Haaretz, according to the latest Wikileaks cable leaks, King Hamad of Bahrain reportedly boasted to the US Ambassador in 2005 of Bahrain's relations with Israel in the intelligence field.

I can't find the cable in question on Wikileaks yet, and Haaretz says it's an exclusive. But King Hamad probably won't welcome this right now.

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Did Israel Stage Air Strike in Sudan?

Was Israel behind an air strike near the Sudanese city of Port Sudan on Tuesday? The attack destroyed a vehicle and killed two men; according to Al Arabiya one of the men was an Islamist figure believed to be engaged in arms smuggling to Hamas in Gaza.

Sudan has accused Israel, and the Israelis are of course refusing to confirm it was their strike, but not denying it either. The Sudanese reportedly prohibited reporters from visiting the site.

Israel is known to believe that Sudan is looking the other way as Hamas smuggles arms to Gaza; the arms, possibly originating in Iran, are landed on the Red Sea coast to avoid their passing through the Suez Canal.

Back in early 2009 Sudan claimed that mysterious aircraft had attacked a convoy of vehicles in the Red Sea region. Though not confirming that attack either, then Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that Israel would strike at the infrastructure of terror wherever it could.

http://mideasti.blogspot.com/2009/03/sudan-convoy-strike-story.html

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Juliano Mer-Khamis

The killing yesterday in the West Bank city of Jenin of Israeli-Arab actor and activist Juliano Mer-Khamis seems to have provoked a rare reaction on both sides of the Green Line: shock and anger among both Israelis and Palestinians.

This is in keeping with the man's unusual background and career. Born in the Israeli Arab city of Nazareth to an Israeli Jewish mother and an Israeli Christian Arab father, both also Communists, he combined a successful movie career with political activism. Though he had served as a paratrooper in the IDF, he had been spending most of his time in the Palestinian city of Jenin. After a theater built there by his mother was destroyed during the Israeli operation in Jenin in 2002, he rebuilt it and spent much of his time there, working to spread the arts in the Jenin refugee camp.

The Palestinian Authority has reportedly arrested a member of Hamas, but there were several gunmen involved. There seems to be some suspicion an Islamist opposed to the fact that the drama project was coeducational might be behind the attack.

He seems to have been an extraordinary man; the high praise he's receiving from both sides of the Green Line seem to testify to that. And as has happened far too often in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it is precisely those who have genuinely built bridges between the two peoples (as he himself personally was such a bridge) who are too often the victims of the violence.

An interview and video about him here.

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Israel and Asad

Salman Masalha in Ha'aretz: "Israel's Favorite Arab Dictator of All is Asad". It's a curious truth, one that Israel's staunch supporter Joe Lieberman didn't seem to get when he recently suggested imposing a no-fly zone in Syria. It's no secret that the Israelis were unhappy to see Mubarak go, but he at least had a peace treaty. The situation with Asad is more complicated, in part preferring to stick with "the devil they know," and in part I suspect the fear that the Muslim Brotherhood or some other Sunni movement would be more confrontational than the longstanding ‘Alawite regime.

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Bombing in Jerusalem

A bomb has gone off near the Central Bus Station in Jerusalem, killing one person and injuring many. There has been an escalation of violence since Saturday, when 50 mortar rounds were fired from Gaza into Israel, followed by Israeli strikes on Gaza.

The quid pro quo cycle is sadly familiar and perhaps inescapable;I do wonder if this is some way linked with Mahmoud ‘Abbas announce willingness to go to Gaza to meet with Isma‘il Haniyya about settling the Fatah-Hamas split. At first glance it may seem odd to strike Israel to abort a Palestinian reconciliation, but in the calculus of this conflict, it could produce such a result.

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A Violent Weekend All Over

After a quiet day trip to the Shenandoah Valley today, some of it spent in the nearly sealed off Fort Valley of the Massanutten range where Verizon's famous red map apparently does not reach and my phone was unable to get either a signal or the Internet, I return to learn that:

• The strikes on Libya are well under way (no link here, as it's everywhere);

• 50 mortar rounds were fired into southern Israel from Gaza today, and Israel is promising retaliation;

• Yemeni forces fired live ammunition against protesters in Aden, a day after more than 40 people were killed in Sanaa;

• The total dead in the Syrian border town of Deraa yesterday is now five, and at the funeral for two of them there were renewed protests;

• And Mohamed ElBaradei was attacked while trying to vote in the Egyptian referendum.
  

Well, it started as a relaxing weekend. I guess I should have stayed off the grid.

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YNet: Israel Fears Sushi Shortage

YNet's Headline: Israel Fears Sushi Shortage After Quake.

And it's not from The Onion, but from the online site of Israel's largest-circulation newspaper, Yediot Aharanot. And it's not April 1, either.

Sure, the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown are tragic events, but can we still get our seaweed and wasabi?

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Hard to Keep the Conspiracy Theories Straight

Both President Mubarak and Vice President Suleiman, talking to ABC News, today, insisted the Muslim Brotherhood is behind the upheaval in Egypt. Meanwhile, as noted in this story in Al-Masry al-Youm, Government sources appear to be behind rumors that the whole thing is an Israeli plot.

Ah, yes, the Israeli-Muslim Brotherhood Axis strikes again!

Israel, of course, seems to be Mubarak's strongest cheerleader right now.

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The "Palestine Papers"

I'm certainly going to have more to say on the major story that broke this weekend, what Al Jazeera English is calling "The Palestine Papers," confidential documents relating to negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel (and the US) over the years, including apparent evidence the PA was willing to make far greater concessions than has been publicly acknowledged. These includes revelations about Jerusalem, the Haram al-Sharif, proposed Israeli land swaps, and so on. Al Jazeera's "Transparency Unit" has search engines in English and Arabic for searching those papers published so far. Key PA figures — Mahmoud ‘Abbas, Saeb ‘Erekat, Yasir ‘Abd Rabbo — are denying offering far-reaching concessions and charging that Al Jazeera has "distorted" the facts, and I suspect the key is going to be finding out not just what's in the headlines but what the documents actually say.

What's clear for now is that there is already considerable criticism of the PA within the Palestinian territories and abroad, and that whoever leaked these documents sought to embarrass ‘Abbas and the PA leadership generally.

I'll have more to say when I've read more, but I suspect the documents may reflect feelers, trial balloons, and other exploratory discussions in the course of negotiations. But the effect may be a bombshell in internal Palestinian politics.

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Sonia Peres, 1923-2011

Sonia Peres, wife of Israeli President Shimon Peres, died yesterday at the age of 87. She had been married to Peres, also 87, for 67 years. Born in Ukraine, she immigrated at the age of four.

The Ha'aretz obit includes a slideshow of her life, in which she generally stayed out of the limelight.

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The Decline and Decline of the Israeli Labor Party

Time to talk about something other than Tunisia. Since Ehud Barak's announcement on Monday that he was resigning the leadership of Israel's Labor Party in order to form a new party, called Atzmaut (Indpendence), and the realignments that have followed, what is left of Israel's Labor Party now holds only eight seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

There was a time when Labor and (before it was created in its present form in 1968) its largest direct ancestor, Mapai, could count on winning as many as 45 to 47 seats in the 120 seat Knesset. (No single party has ever won enough seats to govern without forming a coalition.) In the 1950s, 1960s, and a good part of the 1970s, Mapai and later Labor were consistently at the core of government. All that began to change with the Likud victory in the 1977 elections.

Still, Labor alternated power with Likud throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and in the 1990s became the champion of the Oslo Peace Process. As popular opinion turned against Oslo, it also deserted Labor. The assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 marked a turning point, leaving Shimon Peres as the last of the founding generation still in Labor (though he had often been outside the mainstream as an ally of Ben Gurion in Rafi in the 1950s and 1960s). The formation of the centrist Kadima Party by Ariel Sharon and others (eventually including Peres) drained the party of more loyalists in the past decade. Throughout the 2000s, such leaders as Amram Mitzna, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and Amir Peretz were barely familiar faces outside Israel, as the party's influence shrank. Even so, in the 2006 elections Labor won 19 seats, running second to Kadima, with Likud relegated to third place. Barak returned to the leadership in 2007, after Amir Peretz' performance during the Lebanon War of 2006 came in for criticism.

In 2009, however, Labor won only 13 seats, reducing the once dominant party to fourth place in the Knesset, behind Kadima, Likud, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu. Barak's decision to join Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud in what is otherwise Israel's most right-wing coalition in its history has split the party, with four MKs threatening to leave, but now, Barak and four allies have bolted, and the four who were planning to leave (Amir Peretz, Eitan Cabel, Raleb Majadele and Daniel Ben-Simon) find themselves half of the Labor Party caucus. Ha'aretz has dubbed them the "Final Four," though they are really part of the final eight.

That leaves only eight Labor MKs. Barak and his allies in Atzmaut, will get four portfolios in Netanyahu's Cabinet, while three Labor ministers who did not join Barak have quit the government, so Labor is no longer part of the coalition.

Barak's move has drawn a great deal of criticism; it also further marginalizes a once dominant party, now seemingly a shadow of its former self, and further fragments what remains of the Israeli left. It also makes the current coalition even more firmly rightist than before, with Kadima now firmly identified as the main opposition bloc.

The party of David Ben-Gurion (sometimes), of Moshe Sharett, Levi Eshkol, Golda Meir, and Yitzhak Rabin disappeared some time back. Now Labor isn't even the party of Ehud Barak, who may be remembered only as the last Labor Prime Minister. Ever.

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While We Were Otherwise Occupied . . .

Something like 12 out of my last 14 posts have dealt with Tunisia. Over the three day holiday weekend I kept right on blogging. In the meantime, off in the margins:

1. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon, whose investigation has been hovering like a Sword of Damocles over the country for months, actually submitted its indictments yesterday.
2. For the first time in the post-colonial era, a major part of an Arab country is about to secede, with unforeseen results.
3. The Labor Party's man in the Israeli coalition, Ehud Barak, is quitting the Labor Party and starting his own.

That's not even all of it. Stay tuned. I'll keep going but actually have to do the day job some on Tuesday now that we're back.

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About That Vulture

Okay, by now you've heard about the Israeli spy vulture, since it's being commented upon all over the place. Ha'aretz broke the story in English with this story, and it's been picked up by the BBC and drawn a lot of attention. A vulture, tagged in Israel to track its migration, was found in Saudi Arabia with the Israeli tag on it, stirring local comment and suggestions it is part of a "Zionist plot."

Now it's true that many in the Arab world tend to blame Mossad for everything; some Egyptians are blaming the Alexandria church attack on Israel, and last month the Governor of Southern Sinai suggested that the Sharm al-Sheikh shark attacks might have been an Israeli plot. Such conspiracy theories are laughable and deplorable and silly, especially when a public official like an Egyptian governor are behind the allegations.

At first glance, the vulture story looks like a repeat of the shark story. As this story has been repeated, we're seeing such headlines as "Saudi Arabia Accuses Israel of Using Vultures for Spying," and reports that Saudi security has "arrested" the vulture.

But wait, let's go back to that original Ha'aretz story:

. . . residents and local reporters told Saudi Arabia's Al-Weeam newspaper that the matter seemed to be a "Zionist plot."

The accusations went viral, with hundreds of posts on Arabic-language websites and forums claiming that the "Zionists" had trained these birds for espionage.

"Residents and locsl reporters" told a local paper that seems to mostly be an online site that it looked like a Zionist plot, and "Arabic-language websites and forums" took up the theme. Where is the "Saudi Arabia Accuses Israel" in that? Internet forums in this counry are debating whether the recent bird kill in Arkansas is the result of aliens or the end times; Internet forums are not sovereign nations.

It seems to me that this is more likely a case of some rural folk catching the bird, turning it in, and telling a local reporter they suspected an Israeli plot. Then the forums pick it up. None of the major Saudi media have picked it up that I've seen, though I may have missed it. On the other hand, Arab News does have a report about the dangers of spreading unfounded rumors.

Are conspiracy theories and paranoid suspicions too widespread in the Arab world? Yes indeed. But unlike the shark story, which involved a senior government official, this one seems to be based on local speculation and blown way out of proportion by the media.

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The Strange Case of General ‘Asgari

Over the New Year's weekend a very strange story suddenly surfaced (sinking fairly quickly thereafter) when Iran protested to the United Nations the alleged murder, or alleged suicide, of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps General ‘Ali Reza ‘Asgari in an Israeli prison.

The problem is, there is no particularly good reason to believe that General &lslquo;Asgari was in an Israeli prison, or even in Israel; Israeli refusal to comment on intelligence matters and allegations, combined with censorship that is at times ridiculous in refusing even to report things published abroad, may be adding mystery where there is little or none. I have no idea where General ‘Asgari is, or whether he is alive or dead, but until the recent wave of reports most speculation had him in a safe house somewhere in the West.

It's an odd, shadowy, spooky, Spy vs. Spy sort of saga anyway. Let's take it from the top. General ‘Asgari, who was an IRGC General and a Deputy Defense Minister under President Khatami, Supplanted when Ahmadinejad was elected, he disappeared in Istanbul in 2007. Iran has claimed he was kidnapped. Western speculation has generally been that he defected and is in the hands and under the protection of a Western intelligence service. Some have claimed he had been a double agent for some years, had run Iranian intelligence in Lebanon, and had extensive knowledge of Hizbullah. That would be the presumed motive for an Israeli involvement, if any. Iran protested, and there is confusion over whether he disappeared in December 2006 or January 2007, and Western and Iranian reports attribute different stories to his wife, or someone identified as his wife. Typical cloak and dagger stuff.

Now the current issue. Last June there was an Israeli report about a mysterious "Prisoner X" who was being held at Ayalon Prison under extreme secrecy. The story disappeared from the Israeli website that published it, Ynet (the Yediot Aharanot online site), presumably due to the censor's intervention, but a screen capture by blogger and peace activist Richard Silverstein preserved the report. Silverstein, a controversial figure whose blog, Tikun Olam, often claims to break stories about Israeli intelligence. In December, Silverstein claimed that a source had identified Prisoner X as ‘Asgari, though he admitted another source had denied this, claiming to know who Prisoner X really was.

If you're with me so far, here's where it gets stranger. On December 27, a Ynet report (again taken down; Silverstein has a screenshot), and Silverstein reported that an alleged suicide of a security prisoner was ‘Asgari, but also claimed that he had been murdered.

Iranian Defense Minister Vahidi denounced the alleged murder of ‘Asgari, and Iran is reportedly taking matters to the UN.

Ha'aretz correspondent Yossi Melman, who covers the Mossad beat as far as any Israeli journalist is allowed to, published a lengthy piece on "The Mossad Myth" in which he expressed doubt that ‘Asgari had ever been in Israel and suggested a cult of excessive secrecy was lending credibility to the claims. Of course, if you're a conspiracy theorist, you'll assume Melman is reporting the line Mossad is feeding him.

The fuss seems to have died down a little in the face of other events, and as I've said already, I don't know what happened to ‘Asgari. But I'm struck by the fact that a single blogger, Silverstein, who does seem to have sources inside Israel but who has sometimes been off the mark before, is the sole real reason to believe that Prisoner X is/was ‘Asgari. If Prisoner X wasn't ‘Asgari, there's no reason to think ‘Asgari's dead. And while I respect Silverstein's views and probably share many of them, there seem to be some leaps of faith going on here in the identification.

Homicide detectives (on TV and the movies anyway) always look for motive and opportunity. If indeed Israel snatched an IRGC general and has been holding him in solitary, what would the motive be for killing him now? Anybody? Assuming the suicide story is the real one, why were they holding him so long, if he'd cooperated? Melman may know more than he can post, but he's a lot closer (geographically and otherwise) than Silverstein.

I'll note that the Iranians in the past, while blaming the US in general for being behind the disappearance of ‘Asgari in our role as the patrons of Global Arrogance, have tended to blame not only Israel but also British and German intelligence for the actual operation. There are enough people saying ‘Asgari was never in Israel and isn't dead that I tend to believe this is probably the case. Then again, he's unlikely to turn up and say, "Here I am, I'm fine," because that would probably make him a target.

Or, it could all be true. But the shadowy world in which ‘Asgari moved is one in which a whole lot is going to remain unknown for years, if not forever. You could ask Ashraf Marwan.

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New Israeli Book on Ashraf Marwan Case

We've touched on the Ashraf Marwan story several times: Egyptian public figure and businessman, head of Egypt's defense industry for many years, son-in-law of Nasser, and long rumored to have been a Mossad informant who provided the crucial tip in the 1973 war, and then died in a mysterious fall from his London balcony in 2007. This past summer, a British inquest ruled out suicide but also said there was no evidence he was murdered. His widow Mona Nasser blames Israel for his death.

NOw there's a new book by an Israeli academic which concludes that he was not a double agent and blames Egypt rather than Israel for his mysterious death. Since the book is in Hebrew I can't judge it, and perhaps it's disinformation, but the linked Ha'aretz article adds to the confusion over Marwan.

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Unidentified Object a Weather Balloon?

The balloon-like object an F-16 shot down over the Dimona nuclear reactor yesterday, it's now being reported, may have merely been a weather balloon.

Well, the UFO crowd will have fun with that (I guess "swamp gas" wouldn't be credible in the Negev), but in fact I know from personal experience that, at least in the late 1980s (long enough ago that surely I'm not revealing any vital secrets) Israel had tethered aerostats moored along the Egyptian-Israeli border in the Negev (little mini-blimps on a tether, as low-altitude radar stations to look for smugglers, most likely). If something like that got loose, from their or a neighboring country, I suppose it could have floated.

(Admittedly, I had a surreal conversation with an IDF PR officer back then:

"Do you use the aerostats to look for infiltrators?"
"The what?"
"The balloons."
"What balloons?" (Standing not 100 yards from the nearest, and I'd seen dozens flying along the border).
"That balloon."
"That? Oh, that's just an old weather balloon." I'd recently seen a demonstration in the US of the exact same model by Westinghouse (or maybe GE), and it was quite recent.

On second thought, maybe it was swamp gas.

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Israel Shoots Something Down Over Dimona

Israel has announced that an IDF aircraft shot down "a suspicious object, probably a balloon" that flew over the Dimona nuclear reactor. In another version it's called an "apparent engine-powered balloon," brought down by an Israeli F-16,

I hesitate to guess at this point, but submit it for your unidentified no-longer-flying object files.

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Incomprehensibly Stupid Story of the Day

You really can't make it up: Israel Refuses Entry to Palestinian Firefighters Being Honored for Carmel Fire Assistance.

Good luck next time.

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Weekend Historical Videos: Anwar Sadat

I've posted about Anwar Sadat several times, most recently and fully on October 6, the anniversary of his launching of the 1973 war and, eight years later to the day, of his assassination. Today for my Weekend Historical Videos, I've again raided YouTube for some weekend clips for you. The first three clips show the trip to Jerusalem through the Camp David accords; the last two are of the Sadat assassination. Unfortunately I couldn't find a good (free) clip in English, for the Jerusalem trip. There are some English segments where Sadat and Begin are speaking in English, but the narrative is in Hebrew (and my Hebrew is rudimentary at best, which is a gross exaggeration even then), while Sadat of course is speaking Arabic. But even so, I think you'll get a lot of the gist.

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A Second Act for Amram Mitzna?

Amram Mitzna was once a rising star in Israel's Labor Party: retired Major General, successful Mayor of Haifa, and in 2003, the Labor Party's nominee for Prime Minister. Ariel Sharon's Likud not only trounced Labor that year and won twice as many seats, Labor's worst performance up to then (matched in 2009 with only 19 seats), and Mitzna stepped down. He spent five years as Mayor of Yeruham, a post from which he recently stepped down; he stopped being active in Labor in 2005.

Now, Haaretz is reporting, Ehud Barak is trying to lure Mitzna back into active Labor Party politics. Perhaps, they suggest, as his successor. Mitzna, like Barak, is a former general, though he has a rather dovish record for an IDF general, and clearly Labor is struggling to find a future leader.

But is one of its worst-performing candidates ever the right answer? Labor, of course, is not its old self. Likud is the ruling party; Kadima heads the opposition. Barak has brought Labor into an uncomfortable coalition. The party that utterly dominated Israeli politics from 1948-1977, the party of David Ben-Gurion, Moshe Sharrett, Levi Eshkol, Golda Meir, Shimon Peres, and Yitzhak Rabin, has seen leaders like Mitzna, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, and Amir Peretz. (If you said "Who?" to any of the last three, you're not alone.) If Barak's best hope for the party is to woo Mitzna back to a leadership role, or to try to forge a new leftist bloc around him, it may be a sad indicator of how far downward Labor has come. Kadima is full of people who spent their career in Likud, but is oddly enough now the opposition in Israel.

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