Playing the Sectarian Card

Marc Lynch notes the fact that the Saudi intervention in Bahrain and today's crackdown are part of the regime's effort to frame the issues in Bahrain as a Sunni-Shi‘a rivalry rather than an issue of democratic reforms. Among his points:

The Bahraini regime responded not only with violent force, but also by encouraging a nasty sectarianism in order to divide the popular movement and to build domestic and regional support for a crackdown. Anti-Shi'a vituperation spread through the Bahraini public arena, including both broadcast media and increasingly divided social media networks. This sectarian framing also spread through the Arab media, particularly Saudi outlets. The sectarian frame resonated with the narratives laid in the dark days of the mid-2000s, when scenes of Iraqi civil war and Hezbollah's rise in Lebanon filled Arab television screens, pro-U.S. Arab leaders spread fears of a "Shi'a Crescent", and the Saudis encouraged anti-Shi'ism in order to build support for confronting Iranian influence.

While this strategy may work in the short term it's quite dangerous in the long term, with possible destabilizing effects not only in the Gulf states but in Iraq and Lebanon, where sectarian identities already run high. The demonstrators did not portray this as a sectarian issue; the official media did. Claiming that the demonstrators are agents of Iranian influence may drive the reform movement in that direction, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Playing the sectarian card may boost further support from conservative Sunni states, but in the long run I suspect it is playing with dynamite.

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Muqtada's Return to Najaf

Muqtada al-Sadr's return to Iraq after years of exile in Iran has strengthened the hand of Prime Minister Maliki and of the Shi‘ite parties, and with Muqtada's visit to his old power base in Najaf today he seems to be sending a message of "I'm back, and I'm back in the game." The clips I've seen of his return suggest he is totally surrounded by bodyguards, buy when your father, two brothers, and father-in-law were all either assassinated or executed, I guess that's to be expected.

Since just a few years ago Muqtada and his Mahdi Army were seen by the US occupation as hostile elements, I think it's a clear sign of the US disengagement in Iraq that he's back, and is a major pillar of Maliki's coalition.

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The Troubles in Medina

Clashes last week in the holy city of Medina that led to 38 arrests have been attributed to youth gangs by the Saudi press, but as Brian Whitaker notes, the fact that one report noted the youths wore black, and the fact the clashes occurred on ‘Ashura, give away the sectarian nature of the troubles. Sunni-Shi‘i clashes are a sensitive subject in Saudi Arabia, and most often occur in the Eastern Province where most Saudi Shi‘a live, but Medina, with its close links to the Prophet's family, is also important: Whitaker notes the importance of he Al-Baqi Cemetery, but doesn't mention that four of the 12 Imams are buried there. (Numbers two and four through six.) Only Iraq has more Imam burials.

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‘Ashura 1432

Okay, before somebody starts denouncing me, the above artwork is from Hizbullah's Al-Manar TV English website. If you think I'm a Hizbullah sympathizer you haven't been paying attention, but I needed some Shi‘ite graphics for ‘Ashura, and there it was. If it makes you feel any better, I'm probably violating their copyright.

Today is ‘Ashura, the tenth of Muharram. As the tenth day of the new Muslim year, it originated as a day of fasting exactly analagous to Yom Kippur; the parallel was, according to some hadith, acknowledged by the Prophet himself. I dealt with the background of the day in some detail last year.

While it is still a day of recommended fasting for Sunni Muslims, it has become far more closely identified with Shi‘ism, since it was on ‘Ashura in the year 61 after the Hijra (680 AD) that the third Imam of Shi‘ism, the Prophet's grandson Hussein, and many members of the Prophetic family were martyred in battle at Karbala in Iraq by the Umayyad Caliph Yazid.

At a minimum, Shi‘ites mark ‘Ashura by reenactments of Hussein's martyrdom and by mourning; in some countries self-flagellation and other extreme practices are seen. In Tehran and other Iranian cities, in the Shi‘ite shrines of Iraq, in southern Lebanon and Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia, Shi‘ites will commemorate their central martyr. Unfortunately there are likely to be sectarian attacks as well; yesterday's bombing in Chabahar, Iran, claimed by the Sunni Jundallah, was presumably timed to ‘Ashura, and Sunni-Shi‘ite clashes in Iraq often coincide with Shi‘ite holidays. The blood shed on the field of Karbala 1330 years ago still divides Muslims today.

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Shi‘ites Do Well in Bahrain Elections, Round One

I was away over the weekend so I'm a little late for the Bahrain election wrap-up, but here goes: on the whole, despite the arrests of Shi‘ite activists and others in the runup to the vote, the main Shi‘ite bloc Al-Wifaq (sometimes transliterated Wefaq) did well, winning all 18 seats it was contesting and holding its own from the last Parliament, where it had 17 seats and one aligned independent. Only nine of the 40 seats have to go to runoff next weekend.

Salafi and Islamist groups, even some previously allied with the government, did poorly; most of the remaining seats won so far went to pro-business, pro-government elements.

If two candidates of the leftwing Wa‘d movement who made it into the runoff should win seats, Parliament would be divided equally between pro-government forces and "opposition," though that may be a big "if."

On the whole, in the up-and-down drama of Gulf Parliamentary life, the results are more credible than they might have been, given widespread criticism of the recent arrests.

I know some of my regular readers know Bahrain well; if I get highly informative comments I may move some into the post itself, with our permission of course.

Here are some of the main analyses in English:

BBC

Al-Jazeera English

Arab News (Saudi Arabia)

Gulf News (Bahrain) with more election coverage from them here

The National (Abu Dhabi)

For Arabic readers, the main Bahrain papers Akhbar al-Khalij, Al-Watan, Al-Ayyam, and the voice of the Wifaq bloc, Al-Wifaq.

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