Regimes Seeking Scapegoats

There's a good piece by Najla Abdurrahman at Foreign Policy called "Getting Libya's Rebels Wrong," a riposte to the expressions of concern by some in high places (NATO's Admiral James Stavridis, most prominently), worried about possible links between the Libyan rebels and Al-Qa‘ida. The article helps set the record straight (to be honest, much of the rebel council is made up of ex-Qadhafi regime figures). In part, many legitimately fear the sort of blowback experienced in Afghanistan, when weapons provided to the mujahidin against te Soviets ended up in hostile hands. But it's also a reminder that regimes finding themselves n the ropes seek to blame scapegoats, especially if it can evoke a bete noire of the major powers. For Western consumption, the Libyan regime has emphasized blaming al-Qa‘ida, though its domestic propaganda has been more inventive, portraying an Al-Qa‘ida/US/Israeli plot, with Switzerland and Canada occasionally being included when Qadhafi is rambling. (Which often equates to when Qadhafi is speaking.) Now, Algeria also seems to be crying "Al-Qa‘ida!) (And to be fair, strange combinations have been charged elsewhere: during the Revolution some Mubarak supporters in Egypt claimed an Israeli-Iranian plot.)

One reason regimes try this kind of scapegoating is that it frequently works. During the Cold War, the US gladly backed a rogue's gallery of unsavory dictators provided they proclaimed their anti-Communism loudly. This was especially true in Latin America and Asia.

There are reports that the US is beginning to favor easing out Yemeni President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih, but until quite recently it has been very cautious because Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula really is present in strength there.

An area where scapegoating has worked pretty well so far is Bahrain, where the regime's crackdown (still continuing with many arrests, banned newspapers, etc.) has been defended as a response to an Iranian threat; while the US was cautiously critical of the Saudi intervention, it has largely acquiesced in it. Yet in part this stems from accepting the implicit government steretotype that Bahraini Shi‘ite=Iranian fifth column.

And of course, the US has said little about dissent in Jordan, Oman, or the nearly invisible protests in Saudi Arabia, in part because of fear of the alternatives. Urging change in Syria or Iran, of course, produces no such reticence.

Since Arab spring shows few signs of ending soon, I hope outside players will evaluate what really is happening in each country and not be distracted by regimes crying wolf. There are plenty of sinister movements who really will try to capitalize on turmoil, but autocrats who have painted tthemselves into a corner should not have a license to crush dissent just because they evoke the mantras of "Al-Qa‘ida!" or "Iran!"

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Egypt's Muslims Rally to Back Copts after Al-Qa‘ida Threat

It's been a rough year for Coptic-Muslim relations in Egypt, as noted previously. Not so long ago, some Islamists were even questioning whether Copts should be citizens. So what does it take to persuade members of the Muslim Brotherhood to pledge to defend the Copts?

If you know Egypt, you may well guess: some non-Egyptians are making threats. In this case it's the Al-Qa‘ida-linked "Islamic State of Iraq." The group claimed responsibility for the hostage taking during Sunday services at an Armenian Catholic church in Baghdad last Sunday; some 60 people died either at the hands of the hostage-takers or during the rescue. The Islamic State of Iraq announced that Iraqi Christians were legitimate targets who would be "exterminated" if al-Qa‘ida militants in Iraq were not released, and also demanded that Egyptian Copts would become a target if they did not release "the Muslim women held hostage in its churches" referring to the Camillia Shehata affair and a similar case, Wafaa Constantine. The church denies that the two women are being held for trying to convert to Islam.

In the wake of the Iraqi threat, Egyptian security forces reportedly stepped up security around churches, and warned that the controversial bishop Anba Bishoi, whose previous comments about Islam stirred protests., might become a target. The head of al-Azhar, members of the Brotherhood, and other senior Muslim officials quickly denounced the threat and pledged to defend Egyptian Christians.

While the threat did remind many of the claimed conversion cases, the fact that much of Egypt's Muslim leadership sprang to the defense of the Church was, as Pope Shenouda III noted in his weekly Wednesday sermon, a positive result of the threat.

And Egyptian Muslim institutions showed that they would support their own fellow citizens against foreign threats.

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Yemen Army Fails to Find AQAP Even as World Suspects AQAP in Bomb Plot

In an unfortunate piece of timing, Yemen's Saba News Agency announced today that the Yemen Army has ended its operations in the al-Kur Mountains of Shabwa Province, after failing to locate any Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Penuinsula (AQAP) elements there. This comes at a time when the US and UK assume AQAP is behind today's interception of explosive devices on cargo flights.

AQAP, which emerged from the merger of the Yemeni and Saudi branches of Al-Qa‘ida, has become one of the most active movements in recent years, with operations ranging from the USS Cole to the attempt to assassinate Prince Muhammad bin Nayef of Saudi Arabia. Lately, they have of course shown a serious interest in striking inside the United States, with reported links to both the Fort Hood shooter and the "underwear bomber" of last Christmas. One reason for the focus on the US may be the presence in Yemen of Anwar al-‘Awlaqi, the New Mexico-born radical of Yemeni descent.

Western intelligence sources reportedly believe ‘Awlaqi is hiding in the mountains of Shabwa, despite the Yemeni Army's aforementioned inability to find any AQAP there. (One reason he will be hard to find: before the British left South Yemen, a major part of what is now Shabwa was called the Sultanate of ‘Awlaq. His tribal roots are there, and if the tribes are protecting him, the government won't find him. So far the Predators haven't found him either, though they've reportedly been given the right to take him out. Usama bin Ladin's ancestral roots, of course, lie in neighboring Hadramawt.)

AQAP is serious about striking the US: earlier this year they published a colorful, English-language jihadi magazine called Inspire, the first issue of which included the article "How to Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom," (a pressure cooker is involved). The second issue was released just a few weeks ago. It offers (in a section it calls "Open Source Jihad") advice to potential Jihadis living in the West on how to conceal their identity, avoid suspicion, and plan their own attacks. (Since it includes bombmaking instructions and other unpleasant — and illegal — stuff, I've linked to the Jihadica analysis, not the magazine itself, but copies are out there, and I've looked the first two issues over.)

I suspect we're going to hear a lot more about AQAP and ‘Awlaqi in coming days.

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Asymmetry 101

UPDATE: The President says the packages did contain explosive material. I don't think that changes the basic point below that a limited threat can nevertheless produce asymmetric levels of disruption.

Today's international security alerts still have a lot of unanswered questions attached, so bear in mind that I'm offering some first reactions here, not a considered evaluation. So far it seems that the hard evidence is a few suspicious packages originating in Yemen and reportedly sent to Chicago, perhaps to Chicago synagogues. One is described as a toner cartridge with attached circuit boards. No explosives have been confirmed [SEE ABOVE].

So far, international cargo has been scrutinized at Dubai, East Midlands Airport in the UK, and Newark and Philadelphia in the US, while an Emirates flight origainating in Yemen has been escorted in to New York, first by Canadian and then by US fighter jets.

Now, assuming no explosives turn up, what should we make of all this? Some are suggesting a "dry run," but there isn't much evidence that Al-Qa‘ida believes in dry runs. More likely might be an attempt to test defenses, to judge security by watching the reaction of the security forces in the UK and US.

But I think it's just as likely that the whole purpose was simply to force the security services to spend a lot of time and man-hours coping with these potential threats. If it is, as many seem to be assuming, Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and possibly, once again, the long arm of Anwar ‘Awlaqi, it's worth noting that he has talked in the past about emphasizing opreations that produce maximum disruption for limited effort, as opposed to spectacular 9/11-style attacks. This could be an example if, as seems possible, several countries and much of the cargo system has been snarled by a few packages: and packages that might attract attention (if reports that the packages were addressed to Chicago synagogues are true, that would seem to be planting a red flag and waving it).

This could be either a test of defenses or simply a ploy to occupy security forces and force expenditures of effort and money. If so, it may be a classic case of Asymmetric Warfare 101. More later if developments warrant.

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Militants Surrendering to Saudis

The Saudi press has been filled lately with reports of Al-Qa‘ida operatives returning to the Kingdom and turning themselves in, for example, here. Now, one of the most wanted, Badr Muhammad Nasser al-Shihri, has joined the trend.

The Saudis' efforts at luring radicals home seems to be working, and is, of course of those stories thsat tends to be ignored in the West, where the notion that the Kingdom tacitly supports radical groups seems entrenched.

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