Horror Stories from Jebel Nafusa

Reuters has a story on the little noticed civil conflict in the Jebel Nefusa, Libya's western mountains. Interviews with Libyans who have fled across the Tunisian border are describing targeted attacks on schools and hospitals, the burning of wells and the killing of livestock. Even allowing for exaggeration it is a portrait of what sounds like deliberate depopulation of a region, outside the reach of cameras and of NATO air strikes.

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Regimes Seeking Scapegoats

There's a good piece by Najla Abdurrahman at Foreign Policy called "Getting Libya's Rebels Wrong," a riposte to the expressions of concern by some in high places (NATO's Admiral James Stavridis, most prominently), worried about possible links between the Libyan rebels and Al-Qa‘ida. The article helps set the record straight (to be honest, much of the rebel council is made up of ex-Qadhafi regime figures). In part, many legitimately fear the sort of blowback experienced in Afghanistan, when weapons provided to the mujahidin against te Soviets ended up in hostile hands. But it's also a reminder that regimes finding themselves n the ropes seek to blame scapegoats, especially if it can evoke a bete noire of the major powers. For Western consumption, the Libyan regime has emphasized blaming al-Qa‘ida, though its domestic propaganda has been more inventive, portraying an Al-Qa‘ida/US/Israeli plot, with Switzerland and Canada occasionally being included when Qadhafi is rambling. (Which often equates to when Qadhafi is speaking.) Now, Algeria also seems to be crying "Al-Qa‘ida!) (And to be fair, strange combinations have been charged elsewhere: during the Revolution some Mubarak supporters in Egypt claimed an Israeli-Iranian plot.)

One reason regimes try this kind of scapegoating is that it frequently works. During the Cold War, the US gladly backed a rogue's gallery of unsavory dictators provided they proclaimed their anti-Communism loudly. This was especially true in Latin America and Asia.

There are reports that the US is beginning to favor easing out Yemeni President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih, but until quite recently it has been very cautious because Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula really is present in strength there.

An area where scapegoating has worked pretty well so far is Bahrain, where the regime's crackdown (still continuing with many arrests, banned newspapers, etc.) has been defended as a response to an Iranian threat; while the US was cautiously critical of the Saudi intervention, it has largely acquiesced in it. Yet in part this stems from accepting the implicit government steretotype that Bahraini Shi‘ite=Iranian fifth column.

And of course, the US has said little about dissent in Jordan, Oman, or the nearly invisible protests in Saudi Arabia, in part because of fear of the alternatives. Urging change in Syria or Iran, of course, produces no such reticence.

Since Arab spring shows few signs of ending soon, I hope outside players will evaluate what really is happening in each country and not be distracted by regimes crying wolf. There are plenty of sinister movements who really will try to capitalize on turmoil, but autocrats who have painted tthemselves into a corner should not have a license to crush dissent just because they evoke the mantras of "Al-Qa‘ida!" or "Iran!"

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On Musa Kusa

The decamping to Britain of Libyan Foreign Minister and longtime Qadhafi loyalist Musa Kusa is a blow to the regime, despite its considerable successes on the battlefield. And Al Jazeera is saying that several other key officials are trying to make their exit.

Of course, the loss yet again of Ras Lanuf and Brega by the rebels will somewhat diminish their joy at Kusa's defection. But however triumphant Qadhafi may be feeling must also be tempered (if he's capable of tempered emotion) by the close aides who have bailed on him.

(Oh, yes, he apparently can't find a Libyan to be Libya's Ambassador to the UN, so he's named a Nicaraguan Sandinista.)

Oh, yes: Miguel d'Escoto is a former Maryknoll Catholic priest. Obviously the right choice for Libya's UN Ambassador. No wonder the Foreign Minister defected.

If it weren't for the horrific bloodshed and rapes, it would be ludicrous.

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Will March be the Month of No Resignations?

Yemen's ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih looked close to an exit late last week; on Friday even some of his own Cabinet were talking about him being gone in a day or two. Now he's hanging tough once again, insisting 95% of the people support him and that it's the other 5% who should leave. He has a track record of promising not to run again and then doing so, which is why his promise to quit by the end of the year did not impress the opposition.

If Salih hangs on, it suggests we will not see an autocrat departing office in March, having gotten used to the revolution-of-the-month, with Ben Ali in January and Mubarak in February. Of course, the speed with which upheaval has spread is still extraordinary by any historical standard. But Qadhafi is hanging on (regaining ground again today), while Bahrain has plugged its volcano for the time being, with Saudi support. It's still early days in Syria. I would expect there to be more leaders toppled from power in coming weeks and months, but it's unlikely to be universal, and there will be those who are able to reform ahead of the tsunami. I do think Qadhafi will not now recover full power, and that Salih has already lost it in Yemen but is in denial; but I've learned not to make predictions about this amazing time, when so few of the old rules apply. Like the Red Queen, I've learned to believe six impossible things before breakfast.

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Obama's Speech: First Take

Some initial thoughts on the President's speech [If you haven't seen it, transcript here; embedded video at end of this post.]:

• While I'm sure the domestic debate will continue, I think it was a good speech in its attempt to say this is an international commitment; the goal is to get rid of Qadhafi but it isn't our military mission, which is winding down.
  
• US interests and values were emphasized up front; regional concerns at the end. We can't bear the brunt alone. Perhaps a bit of overemphasis that it's NATO's issue now. NATO has decided to add protection of civilians to the military mission, not us. Last time I looked, we're a member of NATO.
  
• Only a 30 minute speech (some say because ABC didn't want to preempt Dancing with the Stars): why from NDU rather than the Oval Office? Probably to assist military credibility.
• I noted with interest that he said we had to act quickly to prevent the fall of Benghazi, a city of 700,000, "a city nearly the size of Charlotte." Why the choice of Charlotte? It' s a nice city, the banking capital of the South, but other cities in the 700,000 range include Fort Worth, Detroit, El Paso, Memphis, Baltimore, Boston . . . Do you suppose this could have anything to do with the 2012 Democratic Party Convention being in Charlotte? Surely just a coincidence.

Here's the video:

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I'll Comment After Obama Speaks

President Obama is speaking at 7:30 to explain the Libyan operation to the American people. I'll post initial comments soon after he speaks.

Also, if I have any quick takes during, I'll post to the #MiddleEastInst Twitter feed. I'll sign mine MCD in case others are also tweeting it at MEI.

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Qatar Recognizes the Libyan Rebels

Qatar, so far the only Arab country patrolling the Libyan no-fly zone, has become the first Arab country to recognize the Libyan rebel council as the sole representative of the Libyan people. Qatar will also assist in marketing oil from eastern Libya.

Qatar has always pursued a maverick and distinct foreign policy in the Arab world, and this is in keeping with that.

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French Said to Strike Sabha

The coalition, in this case apparently France, has reportedly struck the airfield in Sebha Oasis, well into the Libyan Sahara. Sabha, with longtime links to Qadhafi and site of a major airfield said to be where the sub-Saharan African mercenaries Qadhafi recruited entered the country, would appear to be the deepest strikes so far, with the rest of trhe4 action confined to Mediterranean Libya.

While in-flight refueling makes range somewhat irrelevant, it did cross my mind to wonder if the French were operating from the Mediterranean (the carrier Charles de Gaulle is now in the theater) or from someplace like Chad.

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