How Democrats can avoid a midterm rout in 2010

By E.J. Dionne Jr.
WashPost
Monday, January 4, 2010

As they enter this difficult election year, Democrats seem ready to engage yet again in a debate they never seem to tire of: whether winning demands "moving to the center" or "mobilizing the base." If they get stuck on this, they're in for a very bad time.

The simple truth is that in midterm elections, no party can win without its base because turnout is lower than in presidential elections. Those who do vote are more committed to their parties and their ideological priorities.

Behind the 1994 Republican midterm sweep was a dispirited Democratic base unhappy about the failure of heath-care reform, grumpy about the economy and badly split over the North American Free Trade Agreement, for which President Bill Clinton pushed so hard. While Democrats stayed home, Republicans mobbed the polls and won races all the way down the ballot. It's the midterm rule: No base, no victory.

But this doesn't mean independents or swing voters can be ignored, and there are ways to turn out the base that don't turn off the middle. For the party that's out, opposition to the party in power is often enough. Democrats swept the 2006 midterms because their base was wildly enthusiastic about rebuking George W. Bush and the political center had turned on the president, too. Republicans would like to repeat that in reverse this year.

(More here.)

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