Less Is More For Indie Voters

Many Americans seem to be changing their minds about the role of government.

by Charlie Cook
National Journal
Saturday, Aug. 7, 2010

Just three months away from the midterm elections, in a cycle marred by anemic economic growth and high unemployment, any political party holding the White House and 59 percent majorities in the House and Senate would have plenty to worry about. But beyond the fragile state of the economy, the expected 1 million foreclosures this year, and dispiriting job numbers, something more basic is striking at the heart of President Obama and his fellow Democrats in Congress who have pursued a boldly activist agenda. Many Americans, particularly independent voters, seem to be changing their minds and seeing the role of government in a somewhat different light.

For some time, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal surveys conducted by Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff have asked people whether they believed that "government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people" or that "government is doing too many things better left to business and individuals." In a PowerPoint presentation for clients and friends, McInturff has shown that in the eight NBC/WSJ polls taken between January 2002 and April 2009, Americans preferred government to do more rather than less.

Sometimes the margin was very wide. In September 2007, for example, 55 percent of respondents said that government should do more and only 38 percent said that government was trying to do too much. Other times, the margin was smaller -- but, every time, more Americans sided with greater governmental involvement, not less.

More than half of independent voters say that government does too much.

In four consecutive NBC/WSJ polls, starting 11 months ago, however, the story changed. More people began to say that government was doing too much. The margins were not breathtaking -- 2-to-5 points -- but they were noteworthy.

(More here.)

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