Here’s the bottom line: The recently passed health care reform bill is promising to have a positive effect on Medicare, assuming Republican opponents don’t succeed in killing the reform in court or otherwise undermining its main provisions. Social Security is holding up even in the face of a weak economy. According to the reports, the date of insolvency for Medicare’s hospital fund was pushed back, from 2017 to 2029, because of cost-saving measures in health reform. As for Social Security, without any changes, it will be able to pay full benefits until 2037 and partial benefits after that, the same estimate as in last year’s report, despite temporary setbacks from the recession.
Of course, neither program is sound for the long run. But the reports show there is time for lawmakers to reform and strengthen both of the programs for the long haul. The real question is whether they will rise to the challenge or continue to view these vital programs as battlegrounds for scoring partisan points.
The trustees stressed that the improvement in Medicare depends on how effectively the new health care reform law is implemented. For instance, the law envisions paying doctors based on quality and efficiency of treatments, rather than on the number of visits or procedures. As that transition occurs, will Congress resist the inevitable outcry?
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