Will Republicans Blow It?

Tacking right doesn't always guarantee victory on Election Day.

Alan Abramowitz
The American Prospect

The past two election cycles have not been kind to the Republican Party. Since 2006, the GOP has lost 14 seats in the U.S. Senate and 54 seats in the House of Representatives. So naturally Republicans have been looking forward to the 2010 midterm elections. Not since 1994 have they gone into an election cycle with such high expectations. With Democrats defending a large number of seats in traditionally Republican territory, unemployment hovering just below 10 percent, and a Democratic president with mediocre approval ratings, Republicans have high hopes of picking up a large number of House and Senate seats and possibly taking control of one or both chambers.

It is almost certain that Republicans will make substantial gains in the midterm election. But there is growing concern among some GOP leaders and strategists that the party may fall short of its goals because of a growing internal schism between the party establishment and conservative grassroots activists. In a number of races, insurgent candidates running under the anti-government Tea Party banner have challenged candidates supported by national and state Republican organizations. Several of these upstart candidates, like Rand Paul in Kentucky and Sharron Angle in Nevada, have already secured nominations by defeating candidates backed by the GOP establishment. Even where Tea Party candidates have lost, they have sometimes forced mainstream Republicans like Mark Kirk in Illinois and Carly Fiorina in California to veer to the right to shore up their support among conservative GOP primary voters.

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