U.S. Illusions in Lebanon

By ROGER COHEN
NYT

BEIRUT — Once upon a time a U.S. secretary of state spoke of the “birth pangs of a new Middle East.” That’s now the most laughed-at phrase in gravity-defying Lebanon, a country with two armies, a “unity” government too divided to meet, a wild real estate boom and a time bomb called the “international tribunal.”

Confused already? Lebanon is not for amateurs. Condoleezza Rice wanted to believe that in the bloodshed of Israel’s 2006 war against Hezbollah, the militant Shiite movement, lay the seeds of a new Middle East — democratic, Hezbollah-free and amenable to U.S. interests. Turns out she was dreaming.

Four years on, Hezbollah is stronger than ever. It has the more powerful of those two armies (the other being the Lebanese armed forces), a presence in government, veto power over Lebanon’s direction, and a leader — Hassan Nasrallah — whose popularity as the proud face of Arab defiance has never been higher.

Dahiye, the Hezbollah-controlled southern Beirut suburb flattened by Israel in 2006, now bustles with construction and commerce, including state-of-the-art juice bars and risqué lingerie stores. It feels about as threatening as New York’s Canal Street.

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