Is the Interim Cabinet Too Old Guard?

Three days after the flight of Ben Ali, the question in Tunisia remains, as a commenter on this blog put it succinctly, thawra or inqilab? Was this a revolution from the streets, or a coup by the Army to remove Ben Ali but retain the system mostly intact?

The new interim Cabinet (link is in French) includes, as promised, some prominent opposition figures, and does not include some of the most senior figures in the ruling RCD Party. But it does retain the Foreign, Defense, and Interior Ministers from the outgoing government, and that is not sitting well with the street, according to many reports. Elections have been promised within 60 days as the Constitution requires, but some opposition figures are actually suggesting waiting longer, since it will take time to dismantle the dominant position of the RCD Party, if indeed it is going to be dismantled, which isn't yet a matter of stated policy.

The new government has said it will allow a totally free press, but that, too, is unlikely to spring fully formed out of the barren waste that is the Tunisian press.

In fairness to the interim government, the Foreign Minister is a respected technocrat, and the Interior Minister had only held that job for a few days before Ben Ali fled; his hated predecessor according to some accounts may have been arrested. These men are not the inner leadership of the RCD Party. But they were part of the old regime.

Another interesting question is the role of the Army. It clearly played a role in the removal of Ben Ali, and is reportedly arresting police and other loyalists of the old regime, but is making no public statements. This is in keeping with the tradition of an apolitical Army, which dates from independence and was a key to Bourguiba's rule, but the suspicion that the Army is calling the shots naturally lingers.

What we'll learn in the coming days is whether the revolution is indeed going to replace the old system and the old party with something new and different, or whether it is only Ben Ali that has been overthrown. Some of my commenters and I have kicked around French Revolutionary imagery in the comments, but analogies of course are always faulty. One suggested we have already reached Thermidor, and that Tunisian civility saved the Ben Ali family's heads. I'm not so sure of either point. A lot of people were talking about "Ceausescu" on Friday, and the fact that Ben Ali left precipitately, without broadcasting his final speech and possibly even by helicopter to Malta, may mean he barely got out in time. Madame, apparently, was already in Dubai. (Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette didn't have helicopters and royal jets, which may have more to do with the different outcomes than modern civility.) I'm sure many in the streets want a restoration of order, but I think it's a little early to proclaim Thermidor. Nor am I certain there is no Corsican officer lurking in the wings. But revolutions (if that proves to be what this is) have their own pace, and there are still enormous questions in this one.

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