Public Policy Polling compiled all its 2011 polling in 15 major swing states to assess how the presidential race is shaping up. The numbers suggest the nation is headed for a very close race if it’s a Barack Obama-Mitt Romney contest.
Obama is doing worse than polls suggest, PPP says, because Romney will probably pick up most of the voters who currently favor a different Republican for the nomination. PPP spells out why Romney is probably about four points better in each state than current polls suggest. If so, there are about 10 battleground states, with the largest being North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
With Romney four points better than current polling, he wins 283-255, PPP says. If North Carolina or any other large state goes for Obama, it could swing the outcome to him.
Perhaps PPP’s most interesting finding about North Carolina? Obama’s level of support has held up better here than in any of 15 swing states. Obama won North Carolina by the slimmest of margins in 2008 and PPP’s 12 polls here in the past year average to Obama being up by two points here (or down two if you give Romney the four extra points). He has fallen by more than that in each of the other 14 major swing states.
In other words, get ready for a lot of attention from the presidential candidates this fall, and not just because the Democratic National Convention will be in Charlotte.
See PPP’s full analysis here.
-- Taylor Batten
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