The poll from Public Policy Polling shows Romney with a 54-36 lead among independents, a lead he'll likely need to maintain to win the state. PPP says that in 26 polls dating back to November 2010, Obama and Romney have been within three points of each other 25 times. This poll was conducted Sept. 27 to Sept. 30.
Another pollster, Rasmussen Reports, has consistently had Romney with a small but certain lead in North Carolina. A Rasmussen poll from Sept. 13 had Romney up 51-45. But the RealClearPolitics average of polls over the past month puts Obama up 48-47.
A loss in North Carolina would be devastating to Romney's hopes. Fewer than 10 states are truly in play, and Romney needs most of them to win, current polls suggest.
The PPP poll suggests there are very few undecided voters and the outcome will hinge on which side is more motivated. Obama needs black voters and young voters to turn out the way they did in 2008. Romney needs independents to turn out and break his way. The PPP poll found that 69 percent of Democrats say they are "very excited" about voting, compared with 58 percent of Republicans. Slightly more people disapprove than approve of both Obama and Romney, the poll showed.
UPDATE: Another poll out today shows Romney with a slight edge, 50-46. The poll by American Research Group was conducted with 600 likely voters Friday through Sunday. Its sampling error was plus or minus four percentage points.
-- Taylor Batten
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